India's natural rubber (NR) production is expected to cross six lakh tonnes during the next fiscal year. The NR demand is estimated to be around seven lakh tonnes by the year 2000 according to rubber board chairman K J Mathew.
NR production, estimated to be 5.79 lakh tonnes during the current financial year, is projected to be 6.19 lakh tonnes during 1998-99 while demand will be 7.02 lakh tonnes in 1999-2000, Mathew says in an article in Indian Rubber Journal.
As per the projections, the demand-supply gap is expected to widen by as much as one lakh tonnes by the fiscal year 2003-2004, despite production crossing the seven lakh tonne mark by that period, he says.Production of synthetic rubber (SR), currently around 96,000 tonnes, is estimated to be 2.10 lakh tonnes by 2000 as all the six SR units in the country are expanding their capacities, says Mathew.
Though the current use pattern ratio of NR and SR is 80:20, it is expected to change to 75:25 by the turn of the century, and reach 65:35 by 2010-2011, the chairman of the rubber board, a wing of the union commerce ministry, says.
Mathew said the demand for NR is expected to be over ten lakh tonnes by 2006, while in 2010-2011 the gap is projected to be 3.19 lakh tonnes.The total area under rubber cultivation at present is 5.3 lakh hectares, and out of this, the tappable area was 3.65 lakh hectares. To sustain NR production, and meet the estimated requirements, a target of 60,000 hectares and 30,000 hectares has been set for new planting and replanting respectively during the Ninth Plan, he says.
Thereafter, new planting and replanting will have to be done in 10,000 hectares each every year. According to Mathew, the tappable area has been projected to be 4.2 lakh hectares by the turn of the century and 6.9 lakh hectares in 2010-2011. The per hectare yield of NR, in which India tops at present with a productivity of 1422 kg/hectare, is expected to be 1650kg a hectare in 2000-2001 and 1790 kg a hectare in 2010-2011.
The factors relevant to meet the goals in production are area under existing plantations, future scales of new planting, use of planting materials, age structure of trees under cultivation, technological advances and remunerative prices for NR, says Mathew.
With about 5,500 registered rubber goods manufacturing units involved in making 28 industrial rubber-based products, almost the entire NR produced in India is being consumed. Besides China, India is the only other country consuming its entire production, he says.
A major chunk of Indian NR production is being used for manufacture of automotive tyres and tubes which account for nearly 50 per cent of the NR and SR consumed in India. Cycle tyres and tubes 12.08 per cent, footwear 11.53 per cent, tyre retreads 5.91 per cent, belts and hoses 6.40 per cent are other major consumers.
