Realpolitik Could See Bjp Through In Up

The Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh has, of late, taken to aggressive realpolitik.

And, the change in the style of functioning has come about ever since Kalyan Singh became the Chief Minister and Rajnath Singh the party state unit president

Example: The duo brazenly manoeuvred things so that the BJP government could win the trust vote after the Bahujan Samaj Party withdrew support.

More recently, the way dreaded don DP Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadavs comrade-in-arms, was enticed away and fielded against the Samajwadi Party president himself, drew accolades from political circles.

The Rajnath Singh-Kalyan Singh duo has now set sights on the Lok Sabha polls and winnability is their new watch word.

 

The BJP has also managed to sort out problems of seat sharing and placate dissatisfied nominees. The antipathy between the candidate and the party organisation has been sorted out in most seats. Above all, Atal Behari Vajpayees candidature from Lucknow has lifted the spirits of the cadres. This conviction that the party could make it had been sorely missing in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, a BJP leader said.

More importantly, the BJP has reportedly won back the intermediate castes and Thakurs. The latter, particularly, were being wooed assiduously by the Samajwadi Party chief. The BJP impressed upon the Thakurs that under the leadership of Rajnath Singh, the BJP was their party. With Kalyan Singh carrying with him the Lodh vote bank and the Kurmis swinging towards the party, the BJP has its caste equations neatly balanced. Besides, it helps having Vajpayee, the tallest of Brahmins, as the prime ministerial candidate. Not only fellow Brahmins, but people from all other sections are expected to vote for him.

However, ultimately it will be local factors that will decide the results. It has often been observed that in the state local factors, instead of national issues, determine the outcome of the election. Local rivalries and local caste equations play a vital role in many constituencies of eastern Uttar Pradesh as well as in the west.

Shahjahanpur, for example was won by the Congress in the 1996 elections because its candidate was a Lodh Rajput. This time, too, former UPCC chief Jitendra Prasadas brother is expected to win the seat. More so because the traditional BJP supporters are unlikely to vote for the partys candidate, Satyapal Singh Yadav, a defector from the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal. The other factor which could work against the party is that its candidates, most of whom are seeking reelection from seats they had won in 1996, have done very little for their constituencies.

By sober estimates, the party is expecting to win 60 seats in the states along with its allies. A major advantage for the party is that it is now in power in the state. The last three elections in Uttar Pradesh were fought under Presidents Rule.