)
Mohammed Imran
Mohammed Imran
Global inventories are expected to build by an average of 2.8 mbpd through the first half of the year, marking the largest surplus in recent memory
The current upward trajectory is primarily driven by a toxic mix of heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, infrastructure disruptions in the Caspian region, and significant capital inflows
Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects global oil market to be in surplus for a pro-longed period. It predicts WTI crude oil to hit $48 per barrel-mark in 2026
Oil price outlook: The most significant downward pressure on oil prices this month stems from renewed optimism regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
Forecasts from major energy bodies suggest a trend toward inventory builds and moderated prices, contingent on geopolitical stability and production policies
The global surplus has increased from 0.5 bmpd to around 1.5 mbpd in the last six months
Global oil prices have shown remarkable resilience amid softer economic data from two major consumers: the US and China
WTI plunged 2.5 per cent over the past five trading sessions to $58.05/bbl, shedding 5.5 per cent in the last month and more than 20 per cent since mid-June highs near $73/bbl
Oil price outlook: While the outlook for the oil market remains bearish with expectations for a large surplus in 2026, robust refinery margins offer counterbalance
Mohammed Imran, research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan believes that global market will remain in surplus of 0.5-0.7mbpd in 2026
Crude oil Outlook: WTI to trade $57-$62/bbl near-term, with upside to $65+ on Russian disruptions. Bearish base case holds unless geopolitics escalate.
Global crude oil supplies are poised for a deepening glut, with prices likely to decline toward $50 per barrel by mid-2026 amid sluggish demand growth and robust production
Oil prices are projected to trade in a broader $58-$64 range in the coming weeks
Opec+ is unwinding cuts, restoring 2.72 million barrels per day by November, with Iraq adding 500 thousand barrels per day via Kurdish pipelines, worsening a 0.5 million barrels per day surplus
The decline reflects a US-led trade war, exacerbating oversupply amid Opec+'s 2.72 mb/d restoration and a 0.5 mb/d surplus
WTI crude oil prices opened weaker, tumbling over 4 per cent in early trading, a sharp reversal from the prior week's modest 2.2 per cent.
Crude oil prices continue to trade within a broader range of $5-$7, reflecting the persistent tug-of-war between supply excess and geopolitical flare-ups
Brent crude faces limited upside above $70, as higher prices may dampen Chinese demand, while increased OPEC+ production is helping offset geopolitical risks
Since the conclusion of the Iran-Israel conflict, oil prices have retreated and stabilised within a broader trading range of around $6 per barrel
Geopolitical developments are a primary driver of market uncertainty. The Trump-Putin talks could either ease concerns over US sanctions on Russian oil or escalate tensions if negotiations falter.