Arvind Subramanian
Arvind Subramanian
Arvind Subramanian is a former chief economic advisor to the Government of India. He was the assistant director in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. He previously taught at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.
Arvind Subramanian is a former chief economic advisor to the Government of India. He was the assistant director in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. He previously taught at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.
Arvind Subramanian
The new 'China Shock' threatens developing economies, not the West
If China truly aspires to global leadership, it must vacate the low-skill manufacturing space in favour of developing countries
 "The new 'China Shock' threatens developing economies, not the West")
The good and simple tax? All eyes on GST Council's two high-rate slabs
This article visually summarises, in two tables, how not-simple the GST is, which leads to serious but under-recognised problems of arbitrary and coercive implementation
 "The good and simple tax? All eyes on GST Council's two high-rate slabs")
The stealth reform of India's electricity sector gains quiet traction
To ease utility opposition and win approval, renewables are framed as captive generation-meant to meet the developer's own energy needs
 "The stealth reform of India's electricity sector gains quiet traction")
Why manufacturing-led export still matters for the poor countries
What made the traditional development model so successful was its reliance on exports, which enabled countries like South Korea to tap into virtually unlimited global demand
 "Why manufacturing-led export still matters for the poor countries")
Reducing GDP discrepancies: India needs radical improvements in estimation
Using GST data could help correct inflated real growth figures
 "Reducing GDP discrepancies: India needs radical improvements in estimation")
US President Donald Trump and trade policy: What should India do?
The country should convert the Trump threat to an India opportunity, re-embracing a more liberal trade regime as a way of reviving manufacturing output and exports
 "US President Donald Trump and trade policy: What should India do?")
How quality control orders are crippling India's trade competitiveness
India's exporters are already under dire threat from the US. That only makes it more important that they should not be attacked from the domestic side. QCOs must be eliminated immediately
 "How quality control orders are crippling India's trade competitiveness")
Why did RBI replace flexible exchange rate with de facto peg against dollar
The RBI must come out with an official explanation, but until it does, we can only guess. But there are a few reasonable hypotheses
 "Why did RBI replace flexible exchange rate with de facto peg against dollar")
Rupee defence strategy: Why RBI should embrace currency flexibility
India now holds about $650 billion in reserves, enough to finance nearly a year of imports. The problem is that global financial markets have even more firepower
 "Rupee defence strategy: Why RBI should embrace currency flexibility")
The new RBI should revert to old rupee policy to address challenges
In our earlier piece in these pages, we highlighted the unwelcome consequences of the exchange rate policy adopted under the outgoing Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regime
 "The new RBI should revert to old rupee policy to address challenges")
Why Trump's return to the White House is an opportunity for India
A more principled response would be to initiate talks with the US on a bilateral deal or free-trade agreement. India stands to gain from trade liberalisation
 "Why Trump's return to the White House is an opportunity for India")
Explained: Has India's exchange rate regime changed for the worse?
Ever since the liberalisation in 1991, the RBI has pursued a flexible exchange rate policy
 "Explained: Has India's exchange rate regime changed for the worse?")
Institutions rule: COCD's path to the Nobel in economics this year
Why Colonial Origins of Comparative Development is Nobel-worthy
 "Institutions rule: COCD's path to the Nobel in economics this year")
India's manufacturing under-performance Part 1: New clue from multi-plants
One of the most intriguing and relatively undocumented developments of the last 20 yrs has been "multi-plants," whereby a single firm operates not one but multiple production facilities within a state
 "India's manufacturing under-performance Part 1: New clue from multi-plants")
India's manufacturing under-performance Part 2: New clue from multi-plants
In multi-plant units, flexibility in hiring & firing labour comes from fact of having many plants. In single plants, there is no such flexibility, which renders use of contract labour more important
 "India's manufacturing under-performance Part 2: New clue from multi-plants")
Why restrictive trade responses fail to halt China's export juggernaut
US and Europe should understand the issues and discuss them with China, tailoring responses to the underlying diagnosis, rather than taking knee-jerk protectionist measures that only stoke tensions
 "Why restrictive trade responses fail to halt China's export juggernaut")
Union Budget 2024-25: Three macro puzzles and policy implications
Why is consumption soft, employment growth weak, and core inflation low, when the economy is apparently growing strongly?
 "Union Budget 2024-25: Three macro puzzles and policy implications")
GST revenues: The fate of the compensation cess amid Centre-state row
There's no reason for the cess to be retained in its current form. That's because the cess rates themselves are monstrously complicated, varying not only in magnitude but also according to end-use
 "GST revenues: The fate of the compensation cess amid Centre-state row")
GST's revenue performance: Centre's sacrifice for cooperative federalism
Over the past few years, most commentators have rightly emphasised the tensions in Centre-state fiscal relations, pointing especially to the Centre's repeated recourse to non-sharable cesses
 "GST's revenue performance: Centre's sacrifice for cooperative federalism")
The Sino-American trade war benefits China's competitors
India offers a prime example. It has successfully attracted several Western firms exiting China since launching its 'China Plus One' strategy in 2014
 "The Sino-American trade war benefits China's competitors")
