India vs Pakistan win prediction: Who will win today's T20 World Cup match?
India hold a slight edge, and pundits back them, but as Sourav Ganguly warns, in an India-Pak clash one explosive partnership can change everything. Nothing is certain in cricket
 "India vs Pakistan: Who will emerge victorious today? What cricket pundits say")
India vs Pakistan: Who will emerge victorious today? What cricket pundits say
Listen to This Article
Is 175 a winning total at the R Premadasa Stadium? Or is it slightly under par? The answer may lie in how sharply the ball gripped the surface once Pakistan’s spinners hit the right lengths. On a pitch offering significantly more turn than usual, India’s 175 for 7 could well be just above par — and that makes Pakistan’s chase far from straightforward.
INDIA vs PAKISTAN TODAY: LIVE SCORE | LIVE STREAMING | WEATHER LIVE UPDATES | PREVIEW | HANDSHAKE ROW
Pakistan generated 1.35 times the average turn compared to the previous three T20 World Cup matches at this venue. Notably, 17.4 per cent of deliveries turned more than 4.5 degrees, a sharp rise from 5.4 per cent in earlier games. That suggests the surface is slowing down and assisting spin more than expected.
India’s innings itself underlined that difficulty. While they scored 67 runs off 40 fuller balls from spin, they managed only 74 off 68 shorter deliveries, losing three wickets in the process. Once Ishan Kishan fell after his dazzling 77 off 40, scoring became considerably harder.
Why 175 might be enough
Kishan’s pyrotechnics were central to India reaching 175. India made 52 in the powerplay, with Kishan contributing 42. Without his bold strokeplay, India might have been restricted to around 160 — a total Pakistan would have been far more comfortable chasing.
 "India vs Pakistan live score T20 World Cup")
 "India vs Pakistan live streaming t20 world cup")
 "Mohsin Naqvi is expected to attend the IND vs PAK match in Colombo")
Pakistan ideally would have wanted a target closer to 160. Instead, they now face 176 — a number that carries history. Their highest successful T20 World Cup chase remains 176 against Bangladesh in 2012. Only West Indies have chased a bigger total against India in a T20 World Cup — 193 at Wankhede in 2016.
IND vs PAK win prediction: Can Pakistan pull it off?
Usman Tariq admitted the pitch was slow but sounded confident. “We are on the safe side now… our batters have great momentum,” he said, backing Pakistan’s intent.
However, chasing against Varun Chakaravarthy, Kuldeep Yadav and Axar Patel on a gripping surface is a different challenge altogether.
On balance, India appear to hold a slight edge. But in an India-Pakistan contest, one explosive partnership can rewrite every prediction.
What Sourav Ganguly said before the start of India vs Pakistan match?
Former India captain Sourav Ganguly believes India start as the stronger side against Pakistan in Sunday’s high-voltage ICC Men’s T20 World Cup group match in Colombo, but he has also warned against reading too much into past records. With the shortest format often shaped by one spell, one over or a single moment of brilliance, the contest at the R Premadasa Stadium remains far from predictable.
India enter the game on top of Group A with four points and a net run rate (NRR) of +3.050, while Pakistan are second with four points and an NRR of +0.932. India also hold a dominant 7-1 head-to-head record against Pakistan in the Men’s T20 World Cup, but the build-up suggests another tense and closely fought encounter.
Ganguly: India stronger, but “40 overs will decide”
Speaking on JioHotstar, Ganguly said he does not believe in head-to-head figures or the favourites tag, especially in T20 cricket. However, he stressed that India appear better balanced.
“I don’t believe in head-to-head figures. I don’t believe in the favourites tag, especially in T20 cricket. What I believe is that India starts as a much stronger team than Pakistan,” Ganguly said.
He highlighted India’s depth across batting, pace, spin and fielding, but insisted the result will depend entirely on how the match unfolds on the day.
Bumrah key to India’s edge
Ganguly singled out Jasprit Bumrah as India’s biggest weapon, calling him a “game-changer” and the best white-ball fast bowler in the world.
“Jasprit Bumrah is a game-changer. He is probably the best fast bowler in the world right now in white-ball cricket,” he said, praising his variations and control.
He also pointed to Bumrah’s battle with opener Sahibzada Farhan, suggesting Pakistan’s hopes will rest heavily on how well they handle Bumrah’s four-over spell.
Mongia: India favourites, but spin and conditions matter
Former India wicketkeeper Nayan Mongia also backed India as favourites but urged caution, pointing to Sri Lanka’s slow, spinner-friendly conditions.
“The wicket is slow, and spinners will dominate. While India start as favourites, they will have to be careful,” Mongia said.
He also praised Hardik Pandya’s form, calling him one of the best all-rounders in the T20 format and a player who could tilt the match decisively.
IND vs PAK Win Prediction: India hold the edge, but Pakistan remain dangerous
On paper, India look better placed due to balance, form and match-winners like Bumrah and Hardik. However, Pakistan’s unpredictability and the possibility of rain interruptions could quickly shift momentum.
India may start as favourites, but in a clash of this magnitude, one explosive innings or a sharp spell could change everything.
More From This Section
 "Suryakumar Yadav remained tight lipped on the question about a potential handshake between India and Pakistan players during their upcoming match")
 "Group C points table T20 WC")
 "T20 WC Group D points table")
 "WI vs NEP T20 World Cup")
Don't miss the most important news and views of the day. Get them on our Telegram channel
First Published: Feb 15 2026 | 7:08 PM IST