Datanomics: Exit polls struggle to gain credibility in Assembly elections

A decade-long review of exit polls highlights systemic inaccuracies in key states, with non-response bias emerging as a major challenge for pollsters

Pradeep Gupta, chairman and managing director of pollster Axis My India, said the company opted out of conducting an exit poll for the West Bengal Assembly elections this time because 70-80 per cent of respondents refused to speak. This raises concerns about the reliability of other pollsters, at least in the context of West Bengal.

 

An analysis of 17 polling agencies between 2011 and 2021, covering 70 exit poll results across four states and one Union Territory--West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry--shows that 56 of these results varied significantly from the final outcomes.

   

West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Assam have recorded the highest number of instances where exit poll projections proved inaccurate.

   

The variation between exit poll projections and actual results in 2021 was significant: India Today-Axis My India recorded a deviation of 50.3 per cent in West Bengal, Republic-CNX showed a 24 per cent variation in Assam, and News 24-Today’s Chanakya registered a 22.5 per cent difference in Kerala.

   

Most exit polls projected that the NDA would emerge victorious in two states and one Union Territory (UT)—West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry respectively -- in the 2026 assembly elections.