 "Protesters celebrate beside a defaced portrait of Sheikh Hasina after news of her resignation as Bangladesh prime minister, in Dhaka on Monday | Photo: AP/PTI")
The Centre convened an all-party meeting on Tuesday to discuss the ongoing situation in Bangladesh, with Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, and leaders from other parties in attendance, amid concerns that Sheikh Hasina'a ouster could strengthen the hand of anti-India forces in the neighbourhood.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was slated to brief the meeting regarding the situation, which escalated rapidly on Monday after Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned from her post in the wake of mounting protests. Having fled the country, Hasina landed at the Hindon Air Base near New Delhi in a C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft.
Another 'India Out' campaign in the neighbourhood?
Under Hasina, Bangladesh was seen as the only other stable partner, apart from Sri Lanka and Bhutan, for India in its neighbourhood.
Since the start of 2024, Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh National Party (BNP), Bangladesh's main Opposition party, ran an anti-India campaign, which received public support, according to a report by ThePrint. BNP's 2024 "India Out" campaign included boycotting Indian goods during Ramadan season in April. The BNP, which didn't contest elections earlier this year because they weren't held under a caretaker government, has stoked anti-India sentiments in the past too.
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After Monday's upheaval, the Times of India cited reports from Dhaka to reveal that while Hasina's Awami League would be kept out of the interim government that the Bangladesh army is forming, representatives of the BNP and the banned Jamaat-e-Islami, known for its links with Pakistan, would be included.
The BNP and the Jamaat are believed to have played a role in turning what began as a student movement in early July into a violent country-wide agitation for ousting Hasina.
Apart from long-time strategic rivals China and Pakistan, Hasina's ouster has left New Delhi surrounded by neighbouring governments that either do not lean towards it or are facing a dire internal situation.
For example, pro-Beijing Mohamed Muizzu became the President of Maldives in September 2023, after running on an "India Out" election campaign.
In May this year, Muizzu moved to replace India as a security partner and pushed out military personnel sent by New Delhi to the Maldives to operate a number of aircraft.
In a clear indication of his tilt towards Beijing, while Muizzu refused to renew a hydrographic agreement with India, he allowed Chinese research vessels to dock at ports in the Maldives despite New Delhi's reservations.
While Muizzu selected Türkiye for his first overseas visit as President, and travelled to China afterwards, no bilateral visit between Muizzu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has happened yet. However, Muizzu did come to India for PM Modi's swearing-in ceremony in June.
The new Nepalese Prime Minister, K P Sharma Oli, who was sworn in for the third time in July, has also staked out a publicly anti-India position in the past.
Oli's pro-China and anti-India slant was on display during his first term in 2015. While he prioritised building ties with Beijing and signed a trade and energy supply agreement, he refused to allow President B D Bhandari to visit India.
During his second term between 2018 and 2021, Oli not only ridiculed India's national emblem, he also attempted to redraw Nepal's map to include Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura as part of the country, declaring that he would reclaim them at "any cost".
While Oli declared in 2021 that all misunderstandings with New Delhi had been "resolved", he again claimed in July this year that Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura were a part of Nepal.
Finally, there is Myanmar, which has been gripped by a civil war since 2021, when the military junta returned to power.
Driven by security concerns, especially the presence of insurgent groups along the border, India announced in February that it would move to fence the 1,643-kilometre border with Myanmar.
Meanwhile, the military government in Naypyitaw has faced a number of military setbacks, with the civil war leaving major Indian infrastructure projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway incomplete.
What's at stake for India and what can it do?
Amid the tumultuous changes in India's neighbourhood, India had seen Hasina's return for a fourth consecutive term in January, despite the elections being boycotted by the BNP and Hasina being accused of suppressing dissent, as a positive and reassuring development.
India's first and foremost concern will be that Hasina had been curical to keeping anti-India forces and religious extremists in Bangladesh under check. India's counterterrorism and defence cooperation with Bangladesh could also hang in the balance. During his meetings with Hasina, PM Modi had stressed on joint efforts to counter radicalisation and terrorism. In June, the two countries had also agreed to explore defence industrial cooperation for the modernisation of Bangladesh's armed forces.
Since Hasina's return to power in 2009, New Delhi and Dhaka cooperated in cracking down on anti-India terrorist outfits operating from Bangladesh. As explained by an Indian Express report, for example, both sides were on the same page with regard to dealing with the Jamaat-e-Islami.
Now, New Delhi will have to see if a similar understanding is possible with the new dispensation that will take over in Dhaka. According to a Times of India report, New Delhi could be hoping that the Bangladesh Army will exercise a moderating influence on the new government. However, the report added that there was still plenty of uncertainty to be concerned about.
Till late Monday evening, India had not issued an official response to the developments in Dhaka. Also, it had previously described the protests against Hasina as Bangladesh's internal matter.
Another key concern for India will be how the new dispensation in Dhaka will balance its ties with New Delhi and Beijing.
While Hasina maintained strong economic ties with China, with Beijing responding by endorsing her after the controversial January elections, she had ensured that Chinese investments did not damage India's security interests in the region.
An example of this balancing act was when despite Beijing's interest in the Teesta development project, Hasina ensured that New Delhi would be the one to execute the project in the future. In fact, during Hasina's last meeting with PM Modi, India had agreed to send a technical team to Bangladesh to examine a proposal for the management and conservation of the river waters.
India will be particularly worried that China could gain an upper hand because India has been seen as a trusted ally of the Awami League.
Before her ouster, India had backed Hasina for more than 16 years, despite accusations of rigging elections and her undemocratic handling of the country's Opposition, civil society and media.
Last but not least, political stability in Bangladesh and the development partnership fostered under Hasina were an indispensable part of the economic development of India's northeastern region. Now, New Delhi will have to see whether these initiatives are taken forward once the new government takes over in Dhaka.
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