Gold may touch ₹1.5 lakh by Diwali 2026 - Axis predicts 30% more upside

Gold Poised for More Gains - Accumulate Between ₹1.05-1.15 Lakh, Says Axis Dhanteras Report

Gold investors may want to keep their shopping lists ready this festive season. Axis Securities, in its Dhanteras 2025 Gold Report, has advised traders and long-term investors to accumulate gold on dips in the ₹1.05–₹1.15 lakh per 10-gram range, with a potential upside target of ₹1.45–₹1.50 lakh by next Diwali.

 

The brokerage maintains a bullish outlook on gold as global cues — from softening US yields and sustained central bank buying to geopolitical tensions — continue to strengthen the metal’s safe-haven appeal. With domestic prices already near record highs, Axis expects the rally to extend into 2026, supported by steady ETF inflows and growing investor preference for gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

 

 

“Traders may consider accumulating on declines, as the overall trend remains positive,” the report said, projecting up to 30% further upside from current levels.

 

Domestic gold prices have crossed ₹1 lakh per 10 grams, with MCX Gold rallying on the back of central bank buying, rising geopolitical tensions, and expectations of more US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold’s outperformance against the Nifty 50 this year signals a clear investor pivot toward safety and stability amid global uncertainty. 

Gold Dhanteras returns in the last 5 years:

 

“Gold’s rally has been supported by strong central bank demand, ETF inflows, and growing concerns over monetary debasement,” the report said. “If these trends continue, gold could see further upside into 2026.”

 

The numbers that matter:

Gold returns (Oct 2024–Oct 2025): +60%

 

Gold price (Comex): Surged to a record $4,180/oz, breaking past key resistance at $3,446

 

Target by next Diwali: ₹1.45–1.50 lakh per 10 grams (if gold sustains above $3,800/oz)

 

Central bank buying: Over 1,000 tonnes expected in 2025 after 1,180 tonnes in 2024

 

ETF inflows: At record highs globally, signalling strong investor appetite 

Comex Spot Gold Monthly Chart Analysis

 

Why Gold’s Bull Run May Continue

 

Axis Securities notes five structural tailwinds likely to keep gold prices elevated into next year:

 

• Rate cuts in the US – Lower yields make gold more attractive.
• Central bank accumulation – Ongoing diversification away from the US dollar.
• Geopolitical tensions – From trade tariffs to global conflicts, safe-haven demand remains strong.
• Weakening dollar – De-dollarisation and high US debt are boosting bullion’s appeal.
• Rising ETF demand – Retail investors are piling in for liquidity and inflation protection.

 

Investor Strategy: Buy on dips, stay patient

 

Axis Securities recommends a buy-on-dips approach, accumulating gold between ₹1.05–₹1.15 lakh per 10g, targeting ₹1.45–₹1.50 lakh by Diwali 2026. The bullish case remains intact as long as Comex gold trades above $3,800/oz, with the next resistance at $4,700–$4,800.

 

For investors, gold remains both an inflation hedge and portfolio stabilizer. Those seeking exposure without storage hassles can opt for Gold ETFs or Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) to capture long-term value without purity or liquidity risks.

 

“Indian households already hold over $3 trillion worth of private gold reserves — the world’s largest,” Axis said. “That cultural trust in gold as a store of value continues to pay off handsomely this year.” 

Outlook:

• Bullish Scenario: If gold sustains above $3,800, the next target could be around $4,700–$4,800 in the medium term, driven by safe-haven demand,

monetary debasement concerns, and geopolitical risks.

 

• Bearish Scenario: A pullback below $3,446 could test the $3,100 support zone, which will be a critical level for trend continuation.

 

Strategy

• Traders may consider accumulating Gold on dips in the range of Rs 1,15,000 to Rs 1,05,000, with a potential upside target of Rs 1,45,000-1,50,000 by next Diwali.