Indian migrant arrests at US border up 4,200% since 2020, shows report

The number of illegal US border apprehensions of Indians jumped from 1,000 in 2020 to 43,000 in 2023. While the total stock of illegal Indian migrants in the US has fallen, the rate of new arrivals has surged in recent years, a new report has found.

 

The number of asylum applications from Indian nationals increased from 5,000 in 2021 to 51,000 in 2023. The entry routes for these migrants have also shifted, with more crossings now happening along the northern border with Canada rather than solely through the southwestern border with Mexico. Punjabi speakers make up the largest proportion of illegal Indian immigrants.

 

 

These are the main findings of a paper authored by political scientist Devesh Kapur and PhD scholar Abby Budiman, published by Johns Hopkins University on Monday. The study presents a more complex picture than a simple increase in the number of illegal Indian immigrants and comes at a politically sensitive time. In India, a debate is ongoing about deportations from the US during Donald Trump's presidency, and the issue is likely to feature in talks during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington DC. 

 

The numbers debate

 

Indians made up just 2% of the total number of illegal immigrants in the US, with the absolute number declining from 560,000 in 2015 to 220,000 in 2022, according to the most recent public data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Although 2023 data is not available, this suggests that the proportion of illegal Indian immigrants within the total Indian population in the US dropped from 16.6% in 2015 to 6.9% in 2022.

 

The paper highlights discrepancies in estimates of illegal Indian immigrants. The DHS’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics provides official data, while three independent sources—Pew Research Center, the Center for Migration Studies (CMS), and the Migration Policy Institute—also produce estimates considered credible by the US government.

 

Since 2019, DHS figures have diverged from those of the three independent sources. For 2022, DHS estimated 220,000 illegal Indian immigrants, while Pew and CMS placed the figure at 700,000. “If the estimates of the Pew Research Center and CMS are to be believed, then nearly one of every four Indian immigrants in the US is unauthorised… This is highly improbable,” wrote the authors.

 

DHS data shows the number of illegal Indian immigrants rising from 28,000 in 1990 to 120,000 in 2000, then to 270,000 in 2010 and peaking at 560,000 in 2016 before falling to 220,000 in 2022. 

 

Where are illegal Indian immigrants in the US?

 

The states with the highest number of illegal Indian immigrants are also those with the largest legal Indian communities: California, Texas, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois. However, in some states, Indians represent a larger share of the total unauthorised immigrant population:

 

Ohio: 16%

Michigan: 14%

New Jersey: 12%

Pennsylvania: 11%

 

In certain states, illegal immigrants make up a significant share of the total Indian population:

 

Tennessee: 33%

Indiana: 27%

Georgia: 21%

Wisconsin: 21%

California: 20%

 

Four key swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin—have a higher share of illegal Indian immigrants than the national average. Additionally, two Republican-dominated states, Tennessee and Indiana, have a substantial presence of unauthorised Indian immigrants, which may contribute to local political debates on immigration.

 

The recent surge

 

The number of Indian nationals apprehended at US borders increased from 1,000 in 2020 to 43,000 in 2023, before slightly dropping to 40,000 in 2024.

 

Historically, Indian migrants were mostly apprehended at the southwestern border with Mexico. But in 2024, 36% of border apprehensions involving Indians took place at the northern border with Canada, marking a shift in migration routes.

 

US laws allow those caught at the border to apply for asylum if they fear persecution. Asylum applications from Indian nationals have surged, rising from 5,000 in 2020 to 51,000 in 2023. Similar trends have been recorded in other countries, including the UK, Canada, and Australia.

 

Punjabi-speakers are the largest group among Indian asylum seekers. Between 2001 and 2022, 66% of asylum cases filed by Indians involved Punjabi speakers. Other languages spoken by Indian asylum applicants include:

 

Hindi: 14%

English: 8%

Gujarati: 7% 

   

Asylum approval rates also vary by language:

 

Punjabi speakers: 63% granted asylum

Hindi speakers: 58% granted asylum

Gujarati speakers: 25% granted asylum 

 

The paper suggests that most Indian asylum seekers are economic migrants rather than individuals fleeing persecution. “We can be confident of this claim since we see very little evidence of India’s poor marginalised communities or those from regions with ongoing anti-militancy operations by the government among asylum seekers,” wrote Budiman and Kapur. They noted that the financial cost of reaching the US through illegal routes is 30-50 times India’s per capita income, making it accessible mainly to those with significant financial resources.

 

Visa overstayers

 

A growing share of unauthorised migrants in the US initially entered the country legally but stayed beyond the duration of their visas. According to the Center for Migration Studies, about 60% of unauthorised migrants in recent years entered the US on temporary visas before overstaying.

 

US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) classifies visa overstayers into two categories:

 

Out-of-country overstayers: those who left the US after exceeding their permitted stay.

Suspected in-country overstayers: those who remained in the US past their visa expiry and transitioned to undocumented status.

 

Among Indian visa holders, suspected in-country remain rates have stayed below 2% between 2016 and 2023, amounting to fewer than 30,000 individuals in any given year.

 

Rates of visa overstaying have increased among student and cultural exchange visa holders, reaching a record 3.8% in 2023, up from 1.6% in 2020. Meanwhile, overstaying rates among business and tourism visa holders rose sharply during the Covid-19 pandemic but returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. 

 

Deportations and future outlook

 

The Modi government has reportedly agreed to facilitate the repatriation of 18,000 unauthorised Indian immigrants from the US. However, Budiman and Kapur said that deporting all illegal Indian migrants remains highly unlikely due to logistical challenges and time constraints.

 

Despite the recent increase in illegal crossings, the authors suggest that unauthorised migration from India to the US is likely to decline in the future under Trump administration.