Semaglutide patent loss to create ₹5,000 crore opportunity: Report

Patent expiries of blockbuster weight-loss drug semaglutide may create a ₹5,000 crore generic opportunity for Indian pharma firms across India and key emerging and regulated markets

Patent expiries of blockbuster weight loss molecule semaglutide may open up sizable near-term opportunities for Indian pharmaceutical firms in India as well as regulated markets such as Canada and Brazil with a potential generic market value of about ₹5,000 crore, according to a report by brokerage firm Systematix Group.

 

Vishal Manchanda, pharma analyst at Systematix Group, said that this opportunity is likely to be shared among 10 to 15 players, comprising Indian and global generic manufacturers.

 

“Indian players that stand to benefit the most are Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s (DRL), Eris Lifesciences, Cipla, One Source Speciality Pharma, Torrent Pharma, Lupin, Alkem, Zydus Lifesciences, Ajanta Pharma and Biocon,” he added.

   

Semaglutide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, used to manage type 2 diabetes and chronic weight management in certain adults and adolescents. It is currently held under patent by Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk, which commercialises brands such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus worldwide.

 

The Indian market, which will see the entry of generics in March 2026, is expected to see a Rs 1,000 crore to Rs 2,000 crore incremental revenue opportunity in the branded formulation space for the financial year 2026–27 (FY27).

 

The report adds that India may see a sharp rise in adoption of GLP-1 therapy among diabetics, driven by an affordable price point, potentially 30 to 50 per cent lower versus the current level. “Over time, prices could further correct as low as 70 to 75 per cent from current levels,” Manchanda said.

 

While DRL is planning a rollout of semaglutide across 87 countries next year, with Day 1 launches in India and Brazil as patents expire, Cipla is targeting first-wave launches through a mix of in-house and partner filings.

 

Players like Ajanta Pharma and Emcure have already announced partnerships with Biocon and Novo Nordisk to commercialise semaglutide brands in India and international markets.

 

At present, only Alkem, DRL and Sun Pharma have approvals from the Indian drug regulator for their generic versions, with the same pending for other players.

 

In contrast, Manchanda said Canada and Brazil are the most attractive markets in the near term as key GLP-1 drugs approach patent expiry over the next year. While the semaglutide patent is set to expire on January 4 in Canada, Brazil will be open for semaglutide generics from March 2026.

 

“The combined semaglutide market in Brazil and Canada is estimated at around $2 billion in annual sales. Assuming a 50 per cent price erosion following the generic entry and 50 per cent market share capture by generics, the addressable opportunity for generics players could be $500 million,” he added.

 

The report states that while DRL potentially could be the first generic player among Indian companies to launch in Canada, Sun Pharma may have the first-mover advantage in Brazil. “Other Indian players in the fray for Brazil include Torrent Pharma, Cipla, Zydus Lifesciences and Biocon,” it added.