IMF highlights strength in India's consumption, expects continued push on public investment front

Deniz Igan from Research Department of International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that Indian economic growth estimates were a bit of positive surprises. He noted that IMFs growth forecast was in the mid 6 percent. But with the very strong outturns in the second quarter of 2025 and then the third quarter of 2025, it upgraded the forecast, and recent incoming high-frequency indicators also suggest that it's going to remain strong. For 2025, IMF is estimating 7.3 percent growth in India, marking an upgrade of 0.3 percentage point. And for 2026, the fund is expecting 6.4 percent, another upward revision of 0.2 percentage point. He highlighted that there are a number of factors behind this buoyant performance but singled out the strength in private consumption while noting headwinds on the exports side. And the reason for that is partly an increase in real incomes with the decline in inflation, amid strong rural activity. Monsoon also helped on agriculture harvest front. Going forward, he noted that this type of momentum should be also fostered with policy measures, including a continued push on the public investment front.

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