JP Morgan lowers 2026 gold price forecast amid weak investor demand

Brokerages remain constructive on gold's long-term outlook despite recent price weakness, as rising bond yields, inflation concerns and a stronger dollar have pressured ​prices in the near term.

While several banks have trimmed near-term ​forecasts due to softer investor demand and elevated rate expectations, most analysts still ‌expect prices to recover through 2026. 

JP Morgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, citing softer near-term demand for the metal as ​investor client interest has "dried to a trickle."

"This quietness shows ​through in stagnant activity and demand metrics. COMEX aggregate gold futures open ‌interest and volume have remained depressed, net Managed Money futures open interest has stagnated at low levels and ETF flows have been light," analysts at the bank said in a note dated Sunday.

 

Despite the downgrade, the bank maintained a bullish outlook, expecting prices to climb toward $6,000 an ounce by the end of 2026 as demand strengthens in the second half of the year.

"We retain our bullish medium-term outlook and forecast that after the immense energy and inflation uncertainty clears, gold demand from investors and central ‌banks will again re-intensify over 2H26."

The downgrade comes after ANZ also on Friday lowered its year-end target price for gold to $5,600 as inflation expectations, higher yields and a stronger dollar are likely to pressure prices.

Spot gold has fallen about 14 per cent since the onset of the US-Iran war in late February, as rising oil prices stoke concerns around inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates by the ​Federal Reserve. Prices earlier in the day hit their lowest since March 30 as a ‌global bond rout deepened on mounting inflation fears.  Following is a list of analysts' latest gold price forecasts (in $ per ounce):

Brokerage/Ag Annual Price Targets Forecast

ency Price as of

Forecas

t

2026

J.P. Morgan $5,243 Expects prices ​towards May 18,

$6,000 ‌by year-end, as 2026

demand re-accelerates in

H2'26

ANZ* $5,600 Defers $6,000/oz gold May 15,

target to mid-2027 from 2026

early 2027

Macquarie $4,323 Expects prices to February

Group average $4,590 in ‌first 5, 2026

quarter and $4,300 in

second quarter

Wells Fargo Expects $6,100-$6,300 by February

Investment end of 2026 4, 2026

Institute

UBS - Raises target to $6,200 January

for March, 29, 2026

June, and September 2026

Deutsche $5,500 $6,000 in 2026 January

Bank 26, 2026

Societe - $6,000 by the end of January

Generale 2026 26, 2026

Morgan $4,600 Bull ‌case ​is $5,700 for January

Stanley second half ​of 2026 23, 2026

Goldman - $5,400 by December 2026 January

Sachs 22, 2026

Citi $5,000 Raises 0-3 month price January

Research target to $5,000 13, 2026

HSBC $4,587 $4,450 by year-end 2026 January 8,

2026

ANZ $4,445 $4,400 by year-end and October

$4,600 by June 2026 16, 2025

Bank ‌of $4,438 2026 gold outlook ​raised October

America to $5,000 13, 2025

Standard $4,488 - October

Chartered 13, 2025

Commerzbank $4,900 $4,800 by mid-2026 January

13, 2026

*end-of-period forecasts