Analysts see up to 34% upside in ACME Solar Holdings stock; here's why

ACME Solarcontinues to actively bid for utility-scale projects, and incremental awards are essential for building earnings visibility into FY29 and beyond.

ACME Solar Holdings (ACME) shares continues to capture investor attention, with analysts projecting up to 34 per cent upside in the stock price. 

 

“Execution strength, power purchase agreement (PPA) momentum, and battery storage upside underpin our positive stance,” analysts at Motilal Oswal noted, maintaining ACME as a top pick in the Power/Renewables space. The ACME Solar Holdings stock has already delivered a 45 per cent gain over the past six months, outperforming peers considerably.

 

While power demand growth has slowed in FY26YTD, investors are increasingly focusing on companies that demonstrate both earnings growth and project execution capability. ACME has showcased this ability, with its installed capacity projected to rise from 2.5GW at the end of FY25 to 5.5GW by FY28.

 

 

Analysts estimate that annualised Ebitda from ACME’s ~6.7GW pipeline will reach ₹8,100 crore post-commissioning, supporting a reiteration of the ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price of ₹370.

 

“Based on our estimates, the annualised Ebitda from the entire pipeline of ~6.7GW will amount to ~₹8,100 crore post-commissioning. Reiterate ‘Buy’ with a revised target price (TP) of ₹370,” said Abhishek Nigam and Preksha Daga, research analysts at MOFSL.  ALSO READ | Nuvama increases Bajaj Consumer target to ₹307 on GST boost, growth revival 

Sector catalysts, analysts believe, are also shaping the outlook. “Power demand grew 4 per cent Y-o-Y in August 2025, with peak demand remaining healthy at 229GW (+6 per cent Y-o-Y),” the analysts highlighted. However, in FY26 (April-August), overall power demand was flat Y-o-Y, and peak demand at 243GW fell 2.8 per cent versus last year. Around 40GW of renewable energy projects remain pending PPAs, but the government is reportedly addressing the issue by encouraging states to procure clean energy. This is critical to sustaining the current pace of renewable tenders, which have already surpassed 50GW. 

ACME continues to actively bid for utility-scale projects, and incremental awards are essential for building earnings visibility into FY29 and beyond. “Demonstration of the ability to execute projects and secure competitive financing has been key to shoring up investor confidence in recent months,” the brokerage added.

 

The analysts slightly trimmed FY28E earnings per share (EPS) by 1 per cent, following the cancellation of a 300MW solar project, but noted that the recent 220MW solar + BESS tender win has not yet been included in estimates. For FY27/28E, the company is expected to commission 1.9GW and 0.5GW, supporting an Ebitda compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 74 per cent over FY25-28E. With approximately 70 per cent of debt linked to floating rates, a 25bps reduction in interest rates could boost PAT by 12 per cent/6 per cent in FY27/FY28.  ALSO READ | Rainbow Children's Medicare newly rated 'Buy' at Axis Sec; 21% upside seen 

Battery storage represents an additional upside. ACME plans 3-3.5GWh of storage by end-2025, monetising it through power price arbitrage. Assuming 2.5GWh installed in FY27, with a 1–1.5-hour cycle and ₹2-3 per unit spread, analysts estimate an incremental Ebitda upside of 3.3–8.6 per cent for FY27, which is currently not reflected in consensus estimates. Further, ~2GW of new capacity starting in FY27 is expected to drive additional earnings growth.

 

ACME has clearly outperformed peers over the past six months, with the share price rising +45 per cent versus NTPC Green (up 0.2 per cent) and JSW Energy (up 0.2 per cent). The stock trades at a FY27 EV/Ebitda of 15.5x, compared with 13.3x for NTPC Green and 12.6x for JSW Energy. Valuation of ACME at 10x FY28E Ebitda (discounted by one year) underpins the target price of ₹370, highlighting its potential upside of 34 per cent.