Can Nifty crash below 20,000? Why 2023's unfilled gap is a talking point

Nifty's historical chart shows presence of an unfilled gap around the 20,300 level formed in December 2023; here is what tech analysts have to say.

The NSE Nifty 50 index plunged 2.08 per cent or 480 points to 22,635 - its lowest point since April 7, 2025 amid a global market sell-off after US President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iran's power plants if the country did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  The weakness in the equity market is driven by global sell-offs, elevated volatility, and persistent FII selling, which continues to weigh on the sentiment, says Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.  The ongoing Iran war pushed foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) back into risk-off mode, resulting into highest monthly net sales since October 2024. READ MORE  Amid the Iran war, Nifty shed 10.10 per cent or 2,544 points so far in the month of March. The index has tumbled over 14 per cent or 3,738 points from its all-time high of 26,373 hit on January 5, 2026. 

Is Nifty headed to fill the gap created in 2023?

  The Nifty daily chart shows that there remains an unfilled gap three years ago. On December 1, 2023, the Nifty registered a high of 20,291.55 on December 1, 2023, followed by an intra-day low of 20,507.75 in the next trading session on December 4, 2023.  Thereafter, till date, the Nifty has not dropped below 20,508 levels - thus leaving an unfilled gap of 216 points on the Nifty daily chart till date. 

 

 

  Ajit Mishra, SVP - Research, Religare Broking reckons that generally, a majority of the gaps get filled, but adds that it is not necessary for the gaps to be filled.  "To expect Nifty to fall to 20,000 levels just because there exists a gap around 20,300 levels, seems unrealistic," says the analyst.  "Gaps on charts in generally have their own significance, for instance a gap-up after a range breakout suggests that bulls are aggressive at that point in time, and vice versa in the case of gap-downs," explains Mishra.  For now, the analyst flags that a decisive break of 22,800, could drag the Nifty to 22,500 initially, followed by a major support zone near the 200-Week Exponential Moving Average (WEMA) around 22,000 levels.  Echoing a similar stance, Kunal Kamble, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza believes it would be too early to comment on the 20,000 downside risk, as according to him the primary trend for the market is still positive.  ALSO READ: Market crash  |  Nifty Realty down 5% | Nifty Metal index falls up to 5%  "The primary trend for Nifty is likely to remain positive as long as the index holds above 21,750 levels, with near support visible around 22,300 - 22,350 zone," says Kamble.  Only, in case, the Nifty breaks below 21,750 and the primary trend turns negative, the Nifty could face the risk of filling the gap and testing 20,000-mark, adds the analyst.  Disclaimer: Views and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.