India upstream aluminium Ebitda was ₹5,450 crore, up 12.6 per cent Y-o-Y and up 12.7 per cent Q-o-Q. The downstream aluminium segment reported Ebitda of ₹260 crore, up 16.4 per cent Y-o-Y and up 9.4 per cent Q-o-Q, with Ebitda/t of $225/t, down 6.6 per cent Y-o-Y and down 7 per cent Q-o-Q. The copper division reported Ebitda of ₹910 crore, up 47.7 per cent Y-o-Y and up 52.4 per cent Q-o-Q. The consolidated net debt (March 31, 2026) was ₹68,440 crore, up considerably from ₹35,330 crore at March 31, 2025.
The aluminium upstream volumes were 339kt in Q4FY26, up 2.1 per cent Y-o-Y and down 1.7 per cent Q-o-Q. The FY26 upstream volumes rose 1.7 per cent Y-o-Y to 1,350kt. Aluminium downstream volumes were 124kt in Q4FY26, up 18.1 per cent Y-o-Y and up 14.8 per cent Q-o-Q. The FY26 downstream volumes grew 10.7 per cent Y-o-Y to 446kt. Copper volumes declined 5.2 per cent Y-o-Y to 128kt in Q4FY26, but up 4.9 per cent Q-o-Q. The FY26 copper volumes were flat at 487kt (down 0.8 per cent Y-o-Y). Novelis FY26 shipments declined 5.3 per cent Y-o-Y to 3,557kt.
Domestic capex projects are focused on aluminium and copper upstream. Novelis has an ongoing brownfield 175kt expansion and a greenfield 600kt project in Bay Minette, Alabama, USA. Domestic projects will generate incremental volumes from FY29, while Novelis will produce incremental volumes from FY27 with further capacity scaleup in FY28.
The Novelis’ 600kt greenfield facility at Bay Minette is on schedule and full commissioning targeted for the second half of calendar year 2026 (H2CY26). Full rampup would take 18-24 months. Novelis has achieved cost savings of $200 million in FY26 and targets cost reductions of $350-400 million by FY28. There was an estimated volume loss of 73,000 tonnes due to fire at the Oswego facility. The Oswego facility will resume operations within weeks. About 70-75 per cent of the cash flow losses (total estimated cash flow impact is $1.7 billion) will be recovered from insurance. Novelis is diversifying scrap sourcing, and long-term unadjusted Ebitda guidance of $600/t assumes normalised metal prices and scrap spreads.
Management projects input costs will stay high in Q1FY27. The Q4FY26 costs increased by 2.4 per cent over Q3FY26, with further 5 per cent increase Q-o-Q anticipated in Q1FY27 due to higher prices of furnace oil and coke.
Hindalco’s FY26 capex rose 47 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹31,600 crore. India capex for FY27 is guided at ₹12,000 crore, while Novelis plans $2.3-2.4 billion capex for Bay Minette. Consolidated capex peak was hit in FY26. In copper, the Aditya FRP plant is ramping up, while battery enclosure facility is at full scale. The 50kt copper scrap recycling plant is set for commissioning in August.
During Q4FY26, Hindalco renewable capacity hit 470 megawatt (Mw), with another 53 Mw set for deployment in Q1FY27, taking total renewable capacity to 523 Mw. Also, 30 Mw storage-based power will be deployed in Q1FY27.
The Chakla captive coal mine has received Stage-1 clearance, and Meenakshi mine is at Stage-1 approval. Banda is likely to see first coal only in FY28, while Chakla mine will deliver first coal in Q4FY27.
In Q4FY26, 64 per cent aluminium volumes were hedged at $2,807/t, while 26 per cent currency was hedged at ₹88/$. For FY27, the company has hedged 29 per cent of aluminium at $3,013/t and 14 per cent currency at ₹90.13/$.
Despite record-low copper TCRCs (treatment charges and refining charges), management expects near-term copper Ebitda run-rate to be ₹900-1,000 crore in Q1FY27, supported by higher (by-product) sulphuric acid prices. Management expects normalisation at ₹600-700 crore quarterly Ebitda beyond Q1FY27 as acid prices stabilise.
Volume growth across aluminium, copper, and specialty materials and cost benefits from captive coal will boost long-term margins. The debt overhang is a concern with net debt-to-Ebitda to be capped at 2 times. Elevated aluminium and copper prices could lead to high near-term realisations. But the share price runup may have priced in the anticipated gains with many analysts recommending “Hold”.
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