Minda Corp share skyrockets 10% as Nuvama lifts target to ₹620; retains Buy

Minda Corporation's FY30 revenue target of ₹17,500 cr implies a 28 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY25-30E, while Ebitda is projected at ₹2,100 cr, reflecting a 30 per cent CAGR.

Analysts at Nuvama have upgraded their outlook on auto components maker Minda Corporation after the company unveiled its Vision 2030 roadmap, on the back of robust growth prospects across segments and increasing content per vehicle. 

 

The FY30 revenue target of ₹17,500 crore ($2 billion) implies a 28 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY25-30E, while Ebitda is projected at ₹2,100 crore, reflecting a 30 per cent CAGR. Given this, Nuvama analysts have tweaked FY26-28E Ebitda estimates upward by 1-4 per cent to factor in stronger underlying industry growth and higher per-vehicle content, and retained a ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price of ₹620 (up from ₹590) based on 32x Sep-27E EPS.

 

 

“We are tweaking up FY26-28E Ebitda by 1-4 per cent, factoring in higher growth for the underlying industry and increasing content. Retain ‘Buy’ with a TP of ₹620 (earlier ₹590) based on 32x Sep-27E EPS,” said Raghunandhan NL, Manav Shah and Rahul Kumar of Nuvama, in a note dated September 23.  On the bourses, Minda Corporation share price rallied as much as 10.14 per cent to hit an intraday high of ₹588.35 per share. At 9:36 AM, Minda Corporation share price was trading 8.46 per cent higher at ₹579.35 per share. By compariosn, BSE Sensex was trading at 81,762.76, down 0.41 per cent.

Revenue growth anchored on multiple levers

 

The management highlighted that incremental revenues over FY25-30E will be driven by growth in existing businesses (~28 per cent), premiumisation (~14 per cent), higher exports (~9 per cent), new products (~12 per cent), and other opportunities, including acquisitions (~37 per cent). Premiumisation efforts will focus on Smart Access, Cockpit Electronics, and EV Harness segments, while exports are expected to accelerate across all segments, particularly in North America and Europe. New product launches will include EV offerings (₹300 crore in FY30E versus ₹50 crore in FY25), Sunroofs (₹500 crore versus zero), and Switches (₹650 crore versus zero).

 

By FY30E, the revenue mix is expected to shift with passenger vehicles’ share rising to 25 per cent (from 14 per cent), 2-3Ws’ declining to 40 per cent (from 47 per cent), and commercial vehicles’ (CVs) share easing to 25 per cent (from 28 per cent). Associate company Flash is expected to sustain a CAGR of over 20 per cent through new EV products, rising exports, and cross-selling initiatives.   

Strategic tie-ups and capabilities expansion

 

Minda Corporation’s growth strategy is anchored on premiumisation, import substitution, regulatory tailwinds, and EV adoption. The company has strengthened its capabilities through partnerships with Stoneridge, VAST, Infac, HCMF, and EVQPOINT. The recent Flash acquisition boosts combined E-2W kit value to ₹30,000-35,000 per unit. 

 

The company has also entered a technology licensing agreement (TLA) with SANCO (China) to develop EV connecting systems, charging guns, bus bars, cell contact systems, power distribution units, and battery distribution units. A JV with Toyodenso (Japan) will manufacture automotive switches, with a notable 2W OEM order already secured and SOP expected in Q4FY27E. Additionally, Minda Corporation and HCMF (Taiwan) are establishing a new sunroof plant, contributing to revenue from FY28E.

 

That said, Nuvama analysts expect Minda Corporation to deliver a 14 per cent/16 per cent revenue/Ebitda CAGR over FY25-28E, with growth underpinned by premiumisation, EV adoption, and strategic acquisitions, reinforcing its long-term earnings trajectory.