New Tata Sierra seen powering PV push, but brokerages split on stock

Brokerages on Tata Sierra: Tata Motors’ long-awaited Sierra SUV, unveiled this week, is drawing confident early endorsements from brokerages, with both Nomura and Emkay highlighting its potential to fill a critical gap in the company’s product portfolio and accelerate passenger vehicle (PV) growth over the next three years. 

 

While Nomura maintained its ‘Neutral’ stance on the stock, Emkay reiterated its ‘Add’ rating, underscoring the model’s strategic importance in the fast-growing midsize SUV segment.

 

On the bourses, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (Tata Motors PV) shares rose as much as 2.93 per cent to an intraday high of ₹362.80 before trading 2.16 per cent higher at ₹360.05 at 9:50 AM. Benchmark BSE Sensex was up 0.51 per cent at 85,018.09.

 

 

Nomura analysts believe the Sierra’s feature-loaded positioning and aggressive pricing strategy could meaningfully lift Tata Motors’ PV volume trajectory in FY26-28. The brokerage said the model retains the essence of the legacy nameplate while adopting a contemporary, premium-forward design that strengthens its value proposition, even at the base variant level. Nomura expects Sierra sales to average around 10,000 units per month, while industry reports suggest production may ramp up to 12,000-15,000 units per month.

 

Crucially, Nomura sees the Sierra as well-timed for a market where consumers are gravitating toward premium models, supported by GST-related affordability gains. It expects the SUV to “create a meaningful upside to PV growth expectations” over FY26-28, forecasting Tata Motors’ overall PV volumes at 609,000 units in FY26F, rising to 682,000 and 723,000 units in FY27F and FY28F, respectively, equivalent to 50,000-60,000 units per month.

 

Emkay analysts, who attended the company’s unveiling event, framed the Sierra as the missing pillar in Tata Motors’ SUV portfolio. While TMPV already commands strong shares in the micro SUV (Punch: 32.1 per cent) and compact SUV (Nexon: 24.4 per cent) segments, its presence in midsize SUVs remains limited at about 4.4 per cent, driven mostly by the modest traction of the Curvv. The midsize SUV segment itself accounts for roughly 23 per cent of overall SUV volumes in FY26YTD.

 

According to Emkay, the Sierra’s design cues, slim LED tail-lamps, gloss-black cladding, dual-tone alloys, and its tech-rich triple-screen interior layout firmly position it as a premium, lifestyle-oriented offering. 

 

With a starting price of ₹11.49 lakh (ex-showroom Delhi), the brokerage sees the model as a crucial bridge to the midsize segment. Management expects the Sierra to lift the company’s SUV share from 16.9 per cent to 20-25 per cent, supported by strong post-GST demand momentum. TMPV is also targeting double-digit growth in FY26 and plans to extend the lineup with EV and AWD variants.

 

Emkay estimates the Sierra could scale to about 5,000 units per month, offering upside to current expectations. It reiterated its ‘Add’ rating and target price of ₹400. Nomura, meanwhile, maintained its ‘Neutral’ stance, valuing the PV business at 1.5x FY28F EV/sales and Jaguar Land Rover at 1.1x FY28F EV/Ebitda, and arriving at a sum-of-the-parts target price of ₹395.

 

Despite their differing stock calls, both brokerages agree the Sierra has arrived at a strategically pivotal moment for Tata Motors, with the potential to reshape its PV growth trajectory over the next three years.

 

Disclaimer: Target price and stock outlook has been suggested by Emkay and Nomura. Views expressed are their own.