RIL trades weak after AGM; slips 5% in 4 days; should you buy or hold?

Reliance Industries (RIL) share price hit a 4-month low after AGM as Jio IPO plans raised holdco discount fears. Read to find out analysts' ratings with new share price targets

Reliance Industries (RIL) share price today

 

Reliance Industries (RIL) share price hit a four-month low today, falling 1 per cent to hit an intraday low of ₹1,341.70 on the BSE in Monday's intraday trade. The stock of the Mukesh Ambani-led company was trading at its lowest level since April 28, 2024.

 

At 09:45 AM, RIL shares were quoting 0.3 per cent lower as compared to 0.45 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex.

 

In the past two trading days, the stock of RIL has declined 3.3 per cent. Further, in the past four trading days, it has slipped 5 per cent. With today's decline, RIL stock has corrected 13.5 per cent from its 52-week high of ₹1,551, which it touched on July 9, 2025. It had hit a 52-week low of ₹1,115.55 on April 7, 2025.  FOLLOW STOCK MARKET UPDATES TODAY LIVE

 

Why are RIL shares falling after AGM?

 

RIL, in its 48th Annual General Meeting (AGM) on Friday, August 29, 2025, announced that it is planning to launch the Jio IPO in the first half of the calendar year 2026 (H1CY26), subject to all the necessary approvals.

 

Investors, however, fear that the Jio IPO could lead to a holding company discount for RIL shareholders as the business will become directly investible.

 

"Jio's IPO is a positive milestone, but as structured, could impose a holdco discount at the RIL level versus a cleaner demerger," cautioned analysts at Antique Stock Broking.

RIL Stock ratings and new share price targets

 

Meanwhile, RIL's future plans include universal broadband and mobile connectivity, advanced digital home services (Jio Smart Home, JioTV+), full digitisation of businesses with scalable and secure platforms, AI-driven services with the motto "AI Everywhere for Everyone", and international technology exports.

 

ICICI Securities said the announcement of Jio IPO could drive the next round of tariff hike. The brokerage firm expects 10-12 per cent tariff hike in H2FY26, which would boost Ebitda and return ratios.

 

"The valuation of the IPO (₹10-12 trillion, in our view), would be another key factor to watch out for," the brokerage firm said.

 

Notably, this is the fifth straight year when RIL stock has drifted down post the company's AGM. "It appears that the selling is more technical than fundamentals or disappointments on the expectations front," noted V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments.  ALSO READ | Axiscades Tech hovers near 5% upper circuit as arm secures ₹150-cr order 

He, however, suggested investors to ignore the temporary volatility in the stock price and focus on the long-term potential.

 

"The big appointments relating to clean energy, AI, and global collaborations are positive. Also, the announcement of Jio listing in H1CY2026 is positive since it will help in value unlocking," he added.

 

Those at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expect RJio to remain the biggest growth driver for RIL with 19 per cent Ebitda CAGR over FY25-28, driven by one more tariff hike, market share gains in wireless, and continued ramp-up of the Homes and Enterprise offerings.

 

The brokerage firm said it values RJio (based on DCF) at 13.5x Sep’27E EV/Ebitda to arrive at an enterprise valuation of ₹12.5 trillion ($142 billion). Factoring in net debt and the ~33.6 per cent minority stake, the attributable value for RIL comes to ₹585/share. The brokerage has a 'Buy' rating on RIL stock.

 

JM Financial Institutional Securities, too, reiterated its 'Buy' rating (unchanged target price of ₹1,700) as the analysts believe RIL has industry leading capabilities across businesses to drive robust 15-20 per cent EPS CAGR over the next 3-5 years, particularly driven by both consumer businesses with Jio's ARPU expected to rise at 13 per cent CAGR over FY25-28 with ARPU being on a structural uptrend given the industry structure, future investment needs, and the need to avoid a duopoly market.

 

Key risks are sharp jump in capex in New Energy business, resulting in rising net debt with limited earnings visibility from new projects; weak subs addition and limited ARPU hike; mutedd growth in the retail business; and subdued O2C margins due to macro concerns, it said.