Tata, JSW, Jindal Steel at new high; rally up to 18% in 1 month; here's why

India's steel consumption to grow by 8 per cent- 9 per cent in the next few years, aided by strong demand from the infrastructure, construction and manufacturing sectors, believe analysts.

Share price of steel companies today

Shares of steel companies were in demand with all three frontline stocks Tata Steel, JSW Steel and Jindal Steel hitting their respective new highs on the BSE in Monday’s intra-day trade on expectations of a healthy business outlook. 

Among individual stocks, Tata Steel stock surged 5 per cent to ₹206.40, while Jindal Steel (₹1,204.25) and JSW Steel (₹1,255) were up 1 per cent each. Share price of Steel Authority of India (SAIL) hit a 52-week high of ₹161.75, and was also up 1 per cent in intra-day trade. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was up 0.54 per cent at 84,029 at 01:16 PM.

 

 

In the past one month, Jindal Steel (up 18 per cent), Tata Steel (up 13 per cent), SAIL (up 9 per cent) and JSW Steel (up 8 per cent) have outperformed the market by soaring up to 18 per cent, as against 0.53 per cent rise in the benchmark index.  CATCH STOCK MARKET UPDATES TODAY LIVE

Steel sector overview, outlook

Indian steel industry continues to enjoy a robust demand for steel, with consumption during nine-month FY25-26 growing by almost 7 per cent. The growth in production of crude steel has been higher, at around 9.5 per cent during the same period. This has led to India again becoming a net exporter, as exports grew by around 33 per cent to stand at 4.8 million tonnes, vis-à-vis imports, which reduced by about 37 per cent to stand at 4.65 million tonnes this time. 

 

Fitch Ratings expect India's steel consumption to grow by 8 per cent-9 per cent in the next few years, aided by strong demand from the infrastructure, construction and manufacturing sectors.

 

The rating agency forecast JSW Steel's standalone EBITDA margins to rise to ₹9,500 per tonne (t) in FY26 and ₹10,750/t in FY27 (FY25: ₹8,400/t). This will be aided by positive operating leverage from growing volumes, steady prices, lower costs and improving industry conditions. We believe the government's recent expansion of its tariff barriers to curb imports will aid domestic steel producers' prices and margins. However, persistent excess domestic or imported steel supply is a key risk to profitability, Fitch Ratings said.

 

Tata Steel management indicated Q3FY26 likely marks the bottom for domestic steel prices, particularly for flat products, with Q4FY26 likely to see a sequential improvement in prices and EBITDA/t. Expects ₹2,300/t QoQ improvement in India realizations in Q4 as spot steel prices in India have improved meaningfully since December 2025. Coking coal costs on a consumption basis are expected to be higher by $15/t in Q4.

 

When we compare to last year, the scenario is totally different, because this time the exports have been much more than the imports, and of course the safeguard duty also is playing a role in this, the management of SAIL said in the Q3 earnings conference call. It further said, they can find that there is some sort of stability in the domestic markets from December onwards.

 

Going forward, as the monsoon season and festive seasons are already over, the management of the state-owned company hopes that the market will see an uptick in terms of pricing in Q4. As the coal prices continue to remain range-bound, in fact, a little on the higher side, and the market support is also there, so the margins will remain good in Q4, the management expects So, Q4 again, there will be a better growth for sale, it added.  ALSO READ | PFC-REC merger explained: What it means for investors & key scenarios ahead

Motilal Oswal Financial Services view on Tata Steel, SAIL

 

Overall, Tata Steel posted a decent performance in Q3FY26 as anticipated, primarily driven by healthy volume, offset by muted net sales realisation (NSR) in India. The combined EBITDA in Europe weakened due to muted earnings at the Netherlands operation, while the UK operating loss remained flat QoQ, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

 

Though there are near-term uncertainties related to price volatility due to trade barriers (CABM, tariffs, and import quota reduction), the long-term outlook remains strong for Tata Steel. The brokerage firm raised its FY26E earnings (EBITDA by over 2 per cent and PAT by over 3 per cent), fueled by the better volume and NSR outlook. It also marginally raised EBITDA for FY27E by 2 per cent to reflect the improved outlook on pricing and costs. The brokerage firm reiterated BUY rating with a revised SoTP-based target price of ₹240 on Sep’27E.

 

Meanwhile, despite muted NSR, SAIL reported decent earnings in 3QFY26, aided by healthy volumes. This earnings trend is expected to improve further in Q4, supported by steel price recovery and better volumes backed by inventory liquidation. Analysts at MOFSL increased its FY27 EBITDA estimates by 2 per cent to reflect the improving steel prices and cost efficiency with higher volumes of finished steel. Considering a strong improvement in steel prices, an improved margin outlook and the recent correction in stock price, the brokerage firm upgraded its rating on SAIL to BUY with a target price of ₹175 (premised on 7x EV/EBITDA on Sep’27 estimate).  =================================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.