Vodafone Idea surges 13% on heavy volumes; what's driving telecom stock?

Vi's management, during its analyst meet, unveiled a capex plan for the next 3 years, aimed at sustained subscriber additions, double-digit revenue growth and tripling of cash EBITDA by FY29.

Vodafone Idea share price today

 

Share price of Vodafone Idea (Vi) rallied 13 per cent to ₹11.36 on the BSE in Friday’s intra-day trade amid heavy volumes in an otherwise weak market.

 

The stock price of the telecom services provider recorded its sharpest intra-day rally in the past three months. Earlier, on November 3, 2025, Vi had surged 14 per cent in intra-day trade, data shows.

 

At 10:58 AM; Vi stock was quoting 12 per cent higher at ₹11.26, as compared to 0.43 per cent decline in the BSE Sensex. The average trading volumes at the counter more-than-doubled, with a combined as many as 1,113 million equity shares changing hands on the NSE and BSE.

 

What's driving telecom services provider's share price?

 

The stock of telecom services provider was quoting higher for the third straight day, surging 15 per cent during the same period as Vi’s management, during its analyst meet, unveiled capex plan for the next 3 years, aimed at sustained subscriber additions, double-digit revenue growth and tripling of cash earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by FY29.

 

Vi aims to invest ₹45,000 crore in network deployment over next 3 years along with a strong marketing push, and aims for double-digit revenue growth and EBITDA trebling to ~₹27,000 crore by FY29E. The cash flow requirement of ₹95,000 crore, over the same period will be met through borrowing of ₹35,000 crore, CLAM settlement of ~₹6,400 crore and internal accruals. 

The company's management shared that the process of reassessment of frozen dues (₹87,700 crore at end December 2025 quarter or Q3FY26) has already started and is in full swing. The company is engaged with the government at different levels. However, management refrained from commenting on the resolution timeline and quantum though it expressed confidence of further relief due to such reassessment based on its documents and evidence.

 

The plan appears ambitious, with a revenue growth requirement of 1.5x of industry growth and also contingent on subscriber gain and tariff hikes (to drive 40 per cent of growth). Thus, execution will be key ahead, ICICI Securities said in a note.

 

Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services in the Q3 result update said that they appreciate management’s ambitions to turn things around. However, the brokerage firm believes Vi’s revival hinges on closure of debt raise, continued tariff hikes, stable subscriber trends, more rational competition on subscriber acquisition, and continuation of a benign regulatory regime with likely relief on spectrum repayments.  ALSO READ | Vodafone Idea unveils ₹45k-cr revival plan; analysts cautious on execution

 

Vi’s plans imply subscriber and revenue market share gain through its accelerated network investments. However, analysts at BNP Paribas India said they will need to watch out for the execution. Over the last one year, Vi has increased its investment which has resulted in reduced subscriber losses. However, gaining market share against well-entrenched players still seems difficult to us, analysts said. Further, Vi’s EBITDA growth plans also require meaningful contribution from tariff hike and thus the brokerage firm said they do not see any risk of pricing competition.

 

Analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities said that key monitorables that can pose upside risks to estimates/valuation are further relief from government dues either via reassessment of its frozen AGR dues to a lower amount and/or allowing surrender of pre-2022 spectrum, conversion of more dues to equity and extension of moratorium; multiple sharp tariff hikes that can result in Vi’s blended ARPU being significantly above estimate of ₹191/212 in FY27/28 vs. ₹172 in Q3FY26; and Vi’s subs growth being significantly above assumption of 1 per cent growth p.a. at 192/194/196 million in FY26/27/28 vs. 193 million at end-Q3FY26. The brokerage maintains an ‘Add’ rating on Vi with a target price of ₹11.  =================================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.