Double-digit decline likely in India smartphone shipments in CY2026: CMR

India's smartphone shipments may fall up to 12 per cent in 2026 due to rising memory costs, weak demand and slower upgrades, with the affordable segment facing the sharpest decline

India’s smartphone market is projected to decline 10-12 per cent in shipments in CY2026, according to CyberMedia Research (CMR). The forecast follows Q1 CY2026 data, where the market intelligence firm reported that India’s smartphone shipments declined by 2 per cent year-on-year in the January–March quarter. The period marked one of the weakest quarterly performances in recent years, with the impact uneven across price segments. 

The affordable segment was the worst affected, with shipments declining by 46 per cent. This segment is expected to face continued volume pressure, margin compression and cautious consumer demand through the year, CMR said.

Cost pressures and demand slowdown

CMR attributed the downturn to a sharp increase in DRAM and NAND flash prices, which raised device costs and forced brands to increase prices. This, in turn, led to muted demand as consumers deferred upgrades. 

 

“India’s smartphone market entered 2026 under clear cost pressure, largely driven by ongoing memory supply constraints. A sharp rise in DRAM and NAND prices has increased device costs, forcing brands to recalibrate pricing across segments. This has resulted in slower upgrade cycles and softer momentum during the quarter,” said Menka Kumari, senior analyst, Industry Intelligence Group, CMR.

  READ: India's smartphone market hits six-year low as memory costs surge: Report

  “The impact is most pronounced in the value-for-money segment, where price sensitivity remains high. At the same time, the market is undergoing a structural shift. Consumers are becoming more deliberate in their purchase decisions, prioritising tangible value over frequent upgrades,” Kumari added.

Market share and brand performance

According to CMR data, Vivo continued to lead India’s smartphone market with a 21 per cent share, followed by Samsung at 17 per cent, OPPO at 14 per cent and Xiaomi at 12 per cent. Among the top five brands, only Vivo and OPPO recorded year-on-year growth in shipments.

  READ: Samsung flags possible losses in phone business on rising memory costs

  Although not among the top five, Apple registered growth, reaching a 9 per cent shipment share in Q1 CY2026. The iPhone 16 series accounted for 53 per cent of its volumes, while the newer iPhone 17 series contributed 28 per cent. 

Samsung recorded a decline in shipments but retained the second position with a 17 per cent market share during the quarter.

Source: CMR

Global trends

Globally, Apple and Samsung dominated the list of the top 10 best-selling smartphones, according to Counterpoint Research data for Q1 CY2026. The iPhone 17 led the rankings, accounting for 6 per cent of global unit sales.

  Xiaomi also featured, with the Redmi A5 ranking at the bottom of the top 10 list.

  READ: Govt plans new smartphone export incentives in a boost for Apple, Samsung

  Collectively, the top 10 best-selling smartphones accounted for 25 per cent of global shipments, according to Counterpoint.

Source: Counterpoint