India's inflation numbers might be better than official data suggests once the massive impact of a government food program is factored in, according to a report released Monday
Retail inflation for industrial workers rose to 6.49 per cent in September from 5.85 per cent in August 2022 mainly due to higher prices of certain food items, according to the government data released on Monday. "Year-on-year inflation for the month (of September 2022) stood at 6.49 per cent compared to 5.85 per cent for the previous month (August, 2022) and 4.40 per cent during the corresponding month (September 2021) a year before," a labour ministry statement said. Similarly, it stated that the food inflation stood at 7.76 per cent against 6.46 per cent of the previous month and 2.26 per cent during the corresponding month a year ago. The All-India CPI-IW (Consumer Price Index-Industrial Workers) for September, 2022 increased by 1.1 points and stood at 131.3 points. It was 130.2 points in August 2022. On one-month percentage change, it increased by 0.84 per cent with respect to previous month compared to an increase of 0.24 per cent recorded between corresponding months a year
The fight against inflation will be dogged and prolonged, given the long and variable lags with which monetary policy operates, an RBI article said. "Yet, if we succeed, we will entrench India's prospects as one of the fastest growing economies of the world enjoying a negative inflation differential with the rest of the world," according to the article on the state of economy authored by a team lead by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra. It said this happy outcome will re-enthuse foreign investors, stabilise markets and secure financial stability on an enduring basis. Retail inflation spiked to 7.41 per cent in September, remaining above RBI's upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for the ninth month in a row. With inflation remaining above the 6 per cent level, RBI, now, will have to give a report to the central government giving reasons for failure to contain inflation at 4 per cent with a bias of 2 per cent on either side. "While the persistence o
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India's retail inflation accelerated to a five month high of 7.30% in September due to surging food prices, staying well above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper tolerance band
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With the price index surprising on the upside in August, many analysts have pencilled in a higher inflation print in September as well and accordingly expect the central bank to frontload policy rate hikes, delivering another 35 bps later this month. Confounding the worries on the inflation front, retail inflation accelerated to 7 per cent on-year in August from 6.7 per cent in the previous month -- staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022. The higher than expected August inflation print was driven by food prices primarily in rural areas which came in at 7.2 per cent as against 6.7 per cent in urban areas. The rate-setting panel has increased the policy repo rate by 140 bps to 5.4 per cent since May with the last being a 50 bps increase in the August review. Yet real interest rates continue to be negative as inflation continues to stay above 6 per cent. According to Tanvee Gupta-Jain, the India chief economist at the Swiss brokera
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FinMin blames adverse base effect, increase in food and fuel prices
Inflation in "oils and fats" and"pulses and products" have moderated to 5.62 per cent and 2.52 per cent, respectively, the Finance Ministry pointed out
The Finance Ministry on Monday attributed the rise in inflation to base effect and increase in food and fuel prices, and stressed that initiatives taken by the government to curb price rise will be felt more significantly in the coming months. According to the data, the retail inflation inched up to 7 per cent in August from 6.71 per cent in July. The ministry further said that the core inflation, which is calculated by excluding the transient components of CPI --'food and beverages' and 'fuel and light' at 5.9 per cent remained below the tolerance limit of 6 per cent for the fourth consecutive month. "The headline inflation based on retail CPI recorded a moderate increase from 6.71 % in July 22 to 7.0 % in August 22. This increase is attributable both to an adverse base effect and an increase in food & fuel prices - the transient components of CPI inflation," the ministry said in a series of tweets. This is the second instance since RBI adopted the inflation targeting approach ...