Page 13 - Statsguru

StatsGuru: The state of states' finances

In a recent interview to Business Standard, West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra raised the issue of growing indebtedness at the state government level. In fact, he likened the situation to a "ticking time bomb".A look back at the recent past, as chart 1 shows, if the aggregate level of total outstanding debt and liabilities of all states, as a percentage of GDP is taken, the states have reduced their debts. However, the pace of improvement seems to have stalled since financial year 2012-13.For the most part, state finances have gained because of improved revenue receipts and increased transfers from the Centre, as shown by chart 2. However, an improvement in the states' own tax revenues, which has been a key contributor.As such, state-level gross fiscal deficits have worsened over the past few financial years, as shown by chart 3. It is crucial to note that these numbers do not include the impact of the increased debt burden on account of the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY). M

StatsGuru: What the I-T returns reveal

The trigger for the release of income tax returns data was economist Thomas Piketty's demand, who had complained of the lack of transparency regarding such information

StatsGuru: India's economic indicators suggest a mixed picture

Within IIP, the capital goods sub-index has contracted for seven continuous months, suggesting investment demand continues to be weak

StatsGuru: Is there a case for cutting interest rates?

Despite the clamour for an interest rate cut, the RBI left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.5% during the earlier monetary policy review, on June 7

StatsGuru: Tackling the NPA problem in public sector banks

Financial position of India's public sector banks has deteriorated sharply over the past financial year

StatsGuru: India's IPO market seems to be on the cusp of a revival

Stock markets in India saw a big jump when Narendra Modi was appointed as the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) prime ministerial candidate in late 2013. The exuberance continued unabated when the BJP secured the necessary number of seats needed to form the government on its own. As Table 1 shows, the BSE Sensex began its ascent around mid-2013, reaching a high of 29,681 in January 2015. While the markets corrected thereafter, the stocks have since then made up ground.With stock markets gaining momentum, the moribund initial public offering (IPO) market began to show signs of a revival. In 2014-15, eight IPOs hit the market, up from one in 2013-14, as shown in Table 2. This figure rose to 24 in 2015-16. Collectively, these companies raised Rs 14,500 crore in the primary market, just shy of what was raised the previous four years together.In 2016-17, so far six companies have raised a total of Rs 5,728 crore. Another 19 companies are lined up, expecting to raise Rs 5,635 crore as shown in

StatsGuru: Examining what ails the textile sector

Newly appointed Textiles Minister Smriti Irani has a tough task ahead to revive the country's textile exports

StatsGuru: Explaining how Brexit affects India

The pound plummeted by over 11 per cent as votes were being counted - its worst fall since the infamous Black Friday in 1985

StatsGuru: Inflation up, monsoon may bring respite

After 17 months of deflation, Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation turned positive in April. Wholesale inflation edged upwards to 0.34 per cent in April and further to 0.79 in May as shown in Table 1. Within WPI, prices of manufactured goods, which account for roughly 65 per cent of the index, had begun to move upwards in March, after declining for 12 consecutive months, as shown in Table 2. This suggests that the period of deflation, during which corporate top line growth was dragged down, is now over.Retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), also inched upwards to 5.76 per cent in May, after dipping to a low of 4.83 per cent in March. Rising food prices continue to be a source of worry, as shown in Table 3. At the retail level, food and beverages, pulses, meat, fish and eggs seem to be driving up food inflation as Table 4 shows. But with the India Meteorological Department projecting rainfall at 106 per cent of the long-term average this season, a good mons

StatsGuru: Taking stock of the telecom sector

The telecom sector's contribution to government revenues has increased dramatically over the past years

StatsGuru: Corporate results indicate a recovery

The March quarter results of India Inc suggest a recovery is underway. Net sales of 2,563 companies grew 0.45 per cent in the March quarter of 2015-16, after contracting for four consecutive quarters since the corresponding quarter of FY15, as Table 1 shows. Excluding banks and oil & gas companies, sales growth of 2,511 companies was higher at four per cent. Profit growth (excluding banks and oil & gas companies) also perked up to 60 per cent, after contracting since the December quarter of FY15, as shown in Table 2.The growth in net sales should be seen in conjunction with the growing gap between nominal and real GDP growth. This suggests the period of deflation where there was no revenue growth is now over. As shown in Table 3, corporate top-line growth is correlated with nominal GDP growth.Table 4 shows the top-line growth was driven by refractories, shipbuilding, sugar, IT hardware and petrochemicals but dragged down by retail, telecom handsets, crude oil and natural gas, a

StatsGuru: Economic significance of the PM's trip to Iran

Iran is emerging from a strangling sanctions regime

StatsGuru: Taking stock of the state of the banking sector

State Bank of India's merger with some of its associated banks might kick off a long-overdue consolidation of India's public banking sector.

StatsGuru: Decoding the economic numbers

Recent economic data have revived concern about India's inflation and growth

StatsGuru: Analysing key direct tax numbers for 2000-15

The Income-tax office has released partial data on direct taxes paid in 2000-2015

StatsGuru: Tracking India Inc's green shoots

The early results from India inc for Q1 of 2015-16 are in, and these strongly suggest that a cyclical recovery is underway

StatsGuru: Tracking India's key trade numbers

India's balance of trade, shown in Table 1, continues to head into ever safer territory. That this is largely driven by oil prices is visible in Table 2, which demonstrates that from over a third of the import bill, oil now accounts for less than 18 per cent. Thus, the current account deficit, too, in Table 3, looks comfortable as a percentage of gross domestic product.However, there are warning signs. The trade balance has narrowed partly because imports have fallen, as Table 4 shows. But non-oil import growth, tends to fall significantly less in the context of low oil prices, as that table shows. And the weakness of Indian export growth, including non-oil exports, in Table 5, is a real worry. It is worth noting that other peer exporters have not seen this sustained exports decline, as Table 6 reveals. Perhaps the rupee's value holds part of the answer. While the rupee has declined against the dollar, as Table 7 shows, the Reserve Bank of India has also paused on its reserve-building

StatsGuru: Key numbers the Reserve Bank will consider while setting policy

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in making its upcoming monetary policy decision, has many variables to juggle. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation, as shown in Table 1, has been steady at around five per cent, while the Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation is still in deflationary territory. Food inflation, shown in Table 2, is more volatile, however. Meanwhile the Index of Industrial Production, in Table 3, has decelerated sharply of late. The Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the Indian economy, in Table 4, are barely in expansionary (above 50) territory. On the other hand, credit growth seems to have recovered marginally in the past few months, according to Table 5. Interest costs, for the first time in years, have declined as a proportion of revenue for big listed companies; profit margins have increased over last year, according to Table 6.Yields on long-term government bonds, in Table 7, have decreased - but, although the Centre's borrowing has come under con

StatsGuru: Taking stock of the government's push to electrify India

The government's push in the electricity sector, particularly rural electrification, continues to make news

StatsGuru: Tracking the trends in commodity prices

The commodities universe, which has suffered from a lengthy decline in values, was rocked over the past month by a sharp revival in some prices