Fed Chair Warsh says inflation risks have declined, vows price stability

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said US inflation risks have eased and reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to price stability, while ruling out forward guidance on rates

United States (US) Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said price risks have come down in recent weeks, while repeating his determination to bring inflation back to the US central bank’s 2 per cent target. 

“Expectations of inflation over the first four weeks of this period have come down, inflation risks have come down,” Warsh said Wednesday at the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. 

“We’re going to deliver price stability in the US, that’s what this committee has signed up to do, and our objective is to do that,” he said. “Tactics, the strategy and the rest, that’s still to come,” Warsh said. Warsh emphasised the Fed’s autonomy in determining the proper policy course — in the face of consistent calls by US President Donald Trump for slashing interest rates. 

 

“We’ve been an independent central bank for a very long time. We’re going to be an independent central bank at this moment and you’re going to see no changes on that,” he said in a panel discussion at the ECB conference. 

Warsh repeated that he isn’t going to offer “forward guidance” with regard to upcoming interest-rate policy, marking a step-change at the US central bank. Asked specifically whether a rate hike is on the table at this month’s meeting, Warsh said the panel moderator was “trying to get me to break this rule” on foreswearing forward guidance. “She’s going to fail.” 

“We’re going to chart a new course,” Warsh said. “I want us to have a good family fight when we meet in four weeks,” he said, referring to the next policy decision. 

“At my press conference, I said we’re not going to give forward guidance because we’re meeting in six weeks,” Warsh said on a panel alongside other prominent central bank leaders. “I have an update for you,” he added — noting the July 28-29 meeting is now just four weeks away. 

While Fed officials held interest rates steady last month, they did signal growing support for hikes this year amid inflation running at its fastest since 2023. Updated forecasts for the Fed’s benchmark rate showed half of 18 officials projected a rate increase this year.  

As for whether the Fed will more permanently refrain from forward guidance, Warsh in June announced the creation of five task forces, one of which will examine communications. The others cover the balance sheet, the Fed’s use of data, productivity and jobs, and the central bank’s inflation frameworks. Warsh said that it’s likely there’ll be news next week on task-force membership. Participants will include outside experts, and some individuals from outside the US, he said. 

In the same event, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said risks to euro-area inflation and growth have become less pronounced. 

“I think risks by the way that we have to the upside on inflation and to the downside of growth are probably more broadly balanced than they were a few weeks ago as a result of what we’re seeing, which happens at speed,” she said. Just three weeks ago Lagarde’s institution became the first in the Group of Seven to raise interest rates following the outbreak of the Iran war.