Meloni faces major test as Italy holds referendum on judicial overhaul

By Donato Paolo Mancini

 

Italians head to the polls this weekend in a referendum on judicial reform that has turned into a litmus test for the premiership of Giorgia Meloni.

 

The outcome of the vote will shape the mood ahead of a general election next year, potentially destabilising Meloni, who has led one of Italy’s longest-serving governments and evolved into one of Europe’s most influential leaders.

 

Voters will cast their ballots in a controversial overhaul of Italy’s judicial system that would separate the professional tracks of judges and prosecutors, restructure governing bodies and change how magistrates are disciplined.

 

 

Meloni herself has campaigned vigorously in favour of a yes vote in recent weeks, with her government arguing that the proposed changes will make courts fairer and less politicized. The opposition says the overhaul would hurt the independence of the judiciary without delivering the reforms it needs and weaken the country’s checks and balances. It has called on voters to say no and use the ballot to channel their broader dissatisfaction with the government amid stagnating standards of living.

 

At stake is more than the future of Italy’s judiciary.

 

Referendums have traditionally carried grave risks for leaders, often turning into a broader verdict on their tenure. The Brexit referendum in 2016 cost the UK’s David Cameron his premiership, while Italy’s constitutional vote that same year led then-Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to resign hours after polling stations closed.

 

In this case, a victory would help Meloni consolidate her dominance and strengthen her hand as she gears up for a general election in 2027. A defeat would deal a major blow to the governing coalition, casting clouds over its electoral prospects next year and weakening Meloni’s grip on power.

 

The Italian premier has vowed to stay on whatever the outcome. “There is no chance that I will resign,” Meloni said this month, urging voters to focus instead on the specifics of the reform. “I want to get to the end of my mandate.”

 

While Meloni’s allies have so far refused to say what a defeat might entail for the government, a loss would add to the pressure the Italian premier has already been under since the start of the war in Iran. Meloni has condemned the escalation, effectively distancing herself from US President Donald Trump — once seen as a supporter and close ideological ally of hers. Earlier this week, her government approved a generous but temporary fuel tax cut to prevent a price shock caused by spiraling oil prices.

 

Within her own coalition, a defeat could alter the balance of power between parties and bring to the surface tensions between the League and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy on matters like the war in Ukraine and Rome’s relations with Russia — issues that Meloni has so far been able to manage thanks to her commanding a larger share of the governing coalition’s lawmakers. 

 

A loss would also weaken Meloni’s coalition more broadly just as it prepares to finalize a new electoral law, designed to improve its chances in next year’s election.

 

The referendum itself is the culmination of a years-long fight by the center-right to rein in a judiciary that, in its view, interferes too often with other parts of government. Meloni herself has often launched scathing attacks on judges, who have at times blocked or diluted some of her government’s key initiatives, including on rerouting some asylum seekers to Albania and building a costly and controversial bridge linking the mainland to Sicily.

 

Polling stations close at 3pm Monday and the result will be valid regardless of the turnout. Exit polls are expected right after voting ends.