Aditi Nayar analyses the Budget's fiscal prudence, higher public capex via states, a 4.3 per cent deficit target, debt consolidation, and the impact of higher gross borrowings on bond yields
The economy is seen growing at 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, with inflation likely to be near 2 per cent
The tough position that the bond market finds itself reflects a much more fundamental issue, of rising government bond supply chasing limited domestic savings pool
PM Modi says Union Budget 2026 focuses on fiscal discipline, inflation control and high capital spending, while backing reforms, MSMEs and tourism to drive growth and achieving 'Viksit Bharat' goals
Union Budget 2026 stays focused on fiscal prudence, targets a 4.3% deficit, sustains ₹12.2 trillion capex, and backs rare earths, freight corridors, waterways and data centres, writes Madan Sabnavis
FM Nirmala Sitharaman pegged FY27 fiscal deficit at 4.3% of GDP, signalling continued fiscal consolidation, with net tax receipts seen at ₹28.7 trillion and higher tax devolution to states
The government is likely to aim for a fiscal deficit at 4.2 per cent of GDP for 2026-27, down from 4.4 per cent this fiscal year
India contained its FY26 fiscal deficit at 54.5% of Budget Estimates for April-December, aided by higher non-tax revenues and controlled spending despite a December capex dip
Under the revised Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, the fiscal deficit target was below 4.5 per cent of GDP for 2025-26
Amid data and fiscal uncertainties, the govt faces the difficult task of creating conditions to boost private capex
India's economy is expected to grow 6.8-7.2% in 2026-27; exports, domestic demand and reforms support growth, while global trade tensions pose some risks
India's economy is expected to grow 6.8-7.2% in 2026-27; exports, domestic demand and reforms support growth, while global trade tensions pose some risks
SBI Research expects Budget 2026 to focus on fiscal discipline, managing rising debt, steady borrowing and higher capital spending amid global uncertainty and volatile markets
Budget 2026-27 breaks new ground, but delayed GDP rebasing and continued fiscal secrecy risk undermining its numbers within weeks
As the Union Budget nears, the focus must shift to debt, deficits, and borrowing from household savings, and how these choices affect private investment, manufacturing growth, and jobs
States' fiscal deficit crosses 3% of GDP in FY24 after 3 years; capital spending rises as liabilities remain manageable, says RBI report
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3% so that domestic resources are available for private investments
It is encouraging that the government's dependence on disinvestment receipts in managing its finances has reduced, but the instrument should not be discarded
The report suggests that growth in aggregate revenue receipts slowed to 7.2 per cent year-on-year during April-November 2025
Markets look calm, but five forces-rising debt, slowing revenues, weak savings, geopolitics and populism-signal a tougher growth phase for India