India Inc will deliver the highest quarterly revenue growth in three years at 12.8 per cent in the April-June period, but high oil prices will narrow profit margins by 0.20 per cent, a report said on Monday.
This would be the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth, but the jump in performance in the earlier two quarters could have been attributed to a low base on account of demonetisation and GST implementation slump, the research arm of domestic rating agency Crisil said.
The estimates are based on an analysis of 350 companies excluding those in the banking, finance, insurance and oil sectors, which comprise over 50 per cent of the NSE, it said. Major listed companies will start reporting their results starting tomorrow.
Crisil Research's senior director Prasad Koparkar said 15 of the 21 key sectors will report a double-digit growth for Q1FY19 and volume pick-ups are expected both from both the consumption and commodity-linked sectors.
On the profitability side, the pre-tax margins will crimp by 0.20 per cent, but the slide will be narrower than the 1-2.50 per cent contraction seen in the past quarters.
Volume growth will lead to automobiles, retail and airline services to log a revenue growth in excess of 15 per cent, it said.
Among the commodity sectors, natural gas and cement are expected to post robust growth led by volumes, while petrochemicals and steel products would benefit from continued higher prices, it said.
The 4 per cent rupee depreciation will help export linked sectors like information technology and pharma report a revenue uptick, it said.
Automobiles, steel products and pharmaceuticals are expected to log improvement in operating margins, but the margins for airline services, cement, natural gas, sugar and telecom services will be impacted by higher commodity prices, its director Hetal Gandhi said.
The rupee depreciation will help companies in the export-linked sectors post better margins, it said.
The telecom sector, which has had a bad time since the launch of deep-pocketed Reliance Jio, is expected to continue showing signs of pricing pressures, it said.