India's online education to grow 8-fold, hit $2 bn by 2021: Google, KPMG

User base for paid online tutoring to grow six-fold to 9.6 mn, driven by growing smartphone base

India's burgeoning online education sector is expected to grow by eight times in the next five years to $1.96 billion by 2021 according to a joint report released by Google and KPMG.

The report states that the user base for paid online tutoring will grow by six times from 1.6 million users today to 9.6 million users by 2021. This growth will be primarily driven by India's growing smartphone base and will come from beyond the top six metros in the country.

"There has been a 2x growth in online searches for education and a 3x growth in searches from a mobile device. Also, 44 per cent of education searches are now coming from beyond the top-six metros," read a statement released by Google and KPMG.

While reskilling and online certification currently drives the largest chunk of business in India's online education sector, it is expected to be outgrown by primary and secondary education in the coming years. India has a base of 260 million students and as more of them come online it would overtake professional reskilling.

The report estimates that online certification is currently valued at $93 million and will grow to $436 million by 2021. In the same period, the segment for primary and secondary online education in India could grow to reach $773 million at a CAGR of 60 per cent, making it the largest category by far.

"It is interesting to note, that high growth in education search queries is now coming in from Tier 2 and 3 cities such as Patna, Guwahati, Aligarh and Kota - which points to the opportunities that growing penetration of smartphones and improving quality of internet have opened up," said Nitin Bawankule, Industry Director at Google India.

While online education might fill the gaps in India's lacking primary and secondary education infrastructure, the sector will also be pushed by changing trends in workplaces that favours employees to be constantly re skilled.

Moreover, the current trend of jobs shifting to machine learning and artificial intelligence will mean a huge number of professionals will be looking to learn and get certified in these streams. For online education providers, the opportunity of customisation and reaching deeper into India's hinterland are now available.