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India's southwest monsoon might show signs of withdrawal from India's north-western parts from beginning of September, which could widen the overall shortfall more than the existing 12 per cent, weather experts said. "Rainfall and other charts indicate that large-scale monsoon will start withdrawing from north-west India from the beginning of September," a forecast by the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) showed.
If the forecast is accurate, then it would mean that withdrawal of south-west monsoon in 2015 will be as per schedule, belying hopes of an extended run. The rains usually start withdrawing from parts of Rajasthan from September 1.
It is expected that all-India seasonal rainfall deficiency will further increase in the coming weeks, the IITM forecast added.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), too, in its weekly weather update released on Thursday, said the below-normal rainfall activity is likely over many parts of north-west, west-central and Central India during next two weeks, while it would remain normal to above normal over east and north-east India.
"Possibility of normal to slightly above normal rainfall activity likely over south Peninsula between September 4 and 13," the Met department said.
The IMD data showed that between August 20 and 26, India received around 37 per cent less-than-normal rainfall with showers in all regions except eastern and north-eastern parts of the country being more than 10 per cent below average.
From June 1 to August 27, India's total monsoon shortfall has risen to 12 per cent with parts like the Marathwada region in Maharashtra witnessing 50 per cent less rainfall.
Overall in this season so far, 51 per cent of the country has received "normal" rainfall - a dip by seven per cent since last week. Thirty-six per cent of the country received "deficient" rainfall, an increase of seven per cent since last week.
Of 36 sub-divisions, 18 have received normal rainfall, while 15 witnessed deficient rainfall. The data showed that many sub-divisions like Marathwada, Konkan and Goa and central Maharashtra witnessed 50, 38 and 32 per cent deficiency in rainfall. Coastal and south interior Karnataka, Telangana and Kerala witnessed deficiency of 44, 28, 25 and 31 per cent, respectively.
The rainfall deficit in eastern UP stood at 36 per cent, western UP 30 per cent, and Punjab 31 per cent.
The dip in rains has also started impacting the reservoir levels in 91-odd storages across the country. Data showed that till August 27, the water in these reservoirs was around 91.84 billion cubic metres, which was 87 per cent of last year's level; and 88 per cent of last 10-year average. The worst fall has been in water levels in the reservoirs of eastern, western and southern India.
