Southwest monsoon delayed further

To hit Kerala on June 9, says IMD

The onset of southwest monsoon has been delayed further with India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday saying rains would hit Kerala coast on June 9.

On May 15, IMD had predicted monsoon would hit Kerala around June 7, a delay of six days from its normal onset.

“In view of the strengthening of cross-equatorial flow and deepening of westerlies over South Arabian Sea and development of feeble offshore trough along Karnataka-Kerala coast, the onset of (southwest) monsoon over Kerala is very likely by June 9,” IMD said in its daily bulletin.

A delayed onset of rains is not expected to make much difference to sowing of kharif crops and overall agriculture, if the monsoon’s movement thereafter is normal.

Last week, the met department in its second stage monsoon forecast had retained the 'above normal' forecast for 2016 southwest monsoon at 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA, average rainfall for the past 50 years), with heavy rains predicted over northwest, central and south peninsular India.

 

If IMD's forecast is accurate, India might have its heaviest monsoon rainfall since 1994 in 2016, which might also be well distributed.

IMD said rains in July and August would be normal at 107 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA, respectively. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus nine per cent.

Meanwhile, rains lashed many parts of Tamil Nadu in the past 24 hours ending at 8:30 am on Tuesday, the regional weather office said. Summer rains accompanied with lightning and thunder were witnessed in many parts of the state including Chennai, it added.

The IMD has forecast rain at a few places in southern Tamil Nadu and over one or two places in the northern parts of the state for the next 48 hours.

In north India, nothing much is expected to change, though. The met department said there would be no significant change in maximum temperatures in northwest India for the next two or three days, which is reeling under intense heat.

Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely at a few places over western Rajasthan, at isolated places over eastern Rajasthan, and western Madhya Pradesh. Heat wave is likely at isolated places over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Gujarat.