Monsoon may hit Mumbai shores by Thursday

The early onset of the crucial southwest monsoon bodes well for the country's agriculture sector provided the momentum continues, experts said on Tuesday. Both sowing operations and standing crops are seen benefiting from the showers.

"Early monsoon will always be favourable for crops. And if the current pace continues, it will benefit the sowing operations," said a senior government official.

The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on Friday, six days ahead of the normal arrival date of June 1. The monsoon had covered entire south interior Karnataka and Goa, parts of Konkan, north interior Karnataka and coastal Andhra Pradesh till Sunday and is likely to hit Mumbai by Thursday and parts of adjoining Gujarat by Friday.

The southwest monsoon is critical for summer crops as most of them are rainfed. Planting of crops such as corn, sugar cane, rice and cotton has already begun, while sowing of groundnut and soybean is expected to commence in a few days.

"It (the early arrival of monsoon) is also good for standing crops like sugarcane as the soil moisture content would go up and increase recovery rates," said Mukesh Kuvadia, joint secretary, Bombay Sugar Merchants' Association.

Agriculture secretary Radha Singh had also said the onset of early monsoon in India will aid kharif crop sowing and prove beneficial for farmers. Sugarcane is one of the most important crops of Maharashtra and requires intensive irrigation.

Sowing of oilseeds, which will begin in June, will also benefit from the early onset of monsoon, experts said. "If the monsoon continues at a current pace, sowing of important oilseeds crop would be over by June," said a Mumbai-based trader. However, industry officials also said the benefits accrued from the early arrival of monsoon will only be evident after its eventual performance.

"Though monsoon has arrived early, what is more important is how it finally pans out," said Sandeep Bajoria, president, Central Organisation of Oil Industry and Trade.

Only proper distribution and volume of rains in each of the four months to September will ensure higher output of oilseeds, Bajoria said. A good monsoon will also help the Indian economy grow at a robust rate but its progress and spread would act as the final benchmark to assess the overall impact, experts said.

One of the largest economies in Asia, the Indian economy is estimated to have grown at an average 8 per cent in 2005-06 (April-March) while farm sector is estimated to have grown at 2.3 per cent.

"Good monsoons would lead to higher farm sector growth and this in turn, would have a positive impact on the overall economy," said another government official. About two-thirds of India's billion-plus population depends upon agriculture.