Odds Against The Cong In Punjab

With Beant Singh fell the Congress in Punjab. When he took over the reigns in early 1992, everyone predicted that the Congress government would not last more than six months and the state would once again see a long spell of Presidents rule. But Beant Singh, who had served as a soldier before taking to politics, proved everyone wrong. He fought the terrorists, and in two years, peace returned to the land.

Beant Singhs killing was a turning point in Punjab politics. Harcharan Singh Brar, who succeeded Beant, started with a bang, talking about a clean administration and fighting corruption. But he ended in a whimper. Brar survived for nearly 14 months as Chief Minister, but did practically nothing to strengthen either the party or the government. Finally, in November last, Sita Ram Kesari got rid of him and installed Rajinder Kaur Bhattal as the first woman Chief Minister of Punjab. She is to lead the Congress in the February Assembly elections.

 

Bhattal was running against time. But, to be realistic, nothing spectacular was expected from the lady Chief Minister. Bhattal has a rather average track record in politics. She contested her first Assembly election in 1972 and lost. She lost again 1977. She entered the state assembly for the first time in 1980 riding the Congress wave, but lost again in 1985. Of course, She won the February 1992 election, which was boycotted by all the main factions of the Akalis.

Analysts predict that it will not be easy for Bhattal, even though contesting this time as Chief Minister, to retain her Lehra Gaga Assembly seat in district Sangruru, the heart of Malwa. The Akali Dal led by Parkash Singh Badal has put up a strong candidate, who besides popularity, also enjoys a clean image and is known for his integrity, to take on Bhattal. After taking over as Chief Minister, instead of concentrating in taking concrete steps to boost the image of her party, Bhattal got bogged down by petty transfers and postings of civil servants - both belonging to the IAS as well as those belonging to the state services. Eventually, the bureaucracy turned against her. Later, at the eleventh hour, she tried to lure the people of Punjab with her much-publicised 50-point action plan which included abolition of octroi and free electricity for small and marginal farmers and a long list of concessions for women. But with the announcement of the Assembly elections, first for February 6 and now rescheduled for the next day, the model code of conduct came into force and Bhattal failed to implement her so-called socio-economic package.

Now the ruling Congress Party is in the doldrums. Nothing seems to be working in its favour. The Bahujan Samaj Party has plainly refused to form an alliance with the Congress and the two left parties have also followed the same approach. Says a professor of political science in Punjab University : The Punjab congress is like a sinking ship. Both the BSP and the left parties have been only pragmatic in declining to have a tie-up with the Congress.

The BSP has forced the Congress to contest all the 117 Assembly seats, obviously a face-saving tactic. Interestingly, BSP, which does enjoy any kind of committed following among the 32 per cent dalits in the border state, has now formed an alliance with the hardliner Akalis led by Simranjit Singh Mann, former police officer turned politician. The party is contesting 65 seats and Manns militant Akali Dal the remaining 52.

But the wave, observers say, is clearly in favour of the formidable Akali-BJP combine led by Badal, now almost waiting in the wings to play his third innings as Chief Minister of his home state. Badal enjoys a secular image and has a mass following in the state - both among Sikhs as well as Hindus. The moderate Akalis led by Badal are well-entrenched in the Punjab peasantry and the BJP continues to be a popular party among the urban and semi-urban Hindus.