Political hardsell shortage

Is the Doha Development Round (DDR) dead, as the anti-globalisation activists claim? Not yet, said trade ministers of the 153 member-countries of the Word Trade Organisation at the seventh Ministerial Conference at Geneva last week. They ended the Conference with a general agreement to recommence the stalled negotiations of the DDR and take it to conclusion by the end of next year. Even such broad agreement was in sharp contrast to the acrimony and bitterness that characterised the earlier failed trade talks at Cancun and Hong Kong.

WTO Rules require that every member agree on every issue for negotiations to proceed towards conclusion. The Rules were framed at a time when the rich countries felt they had enough clout to push everyone towards an agreement. Over the past decade, the equations have changed. The poor countries and the not-so-poor ones are not willing to go ahead with a trade deal that does not address the issues of poverty alleviation and greater willingness of the rich countries to reform their farm subsidy policies. They are also better organised to block any attempt to push through an agreement through behind the scenes negotiations. Naturally, the DDR has dragged on since 2001 and even its conclusion by next year would be quite an achievement.

 

Sensing that member countries are preoccupied with domestic issues and global economic slowdown, Pascal Lamy, the Director General of WTO, kept the negotiations out of last week’s Geneva meet. That decision gave the Ministers a chance to know each other better in a less tense atmosphere and try to find common ground. Anand Sharma, India’s commerce minister, must have benefitted from such an opportunity in getting to know his supporters and adversaries better.

Left with the option of making some positive noises, the Ministers decided to agree on certain moratoriums. In 1998, the trade ministers had agreed not to impose duties on electronic commerce. The agreement was renewed at each Ministerial thereafter. Last week’s meet also extended the moratorium till the next Ministerial Meet in 2011.

A similar extension of the agreement not to bring ‘non-violation’ cases in regard to intellectual property to the WTO dispute settlement process was agreed last week. ‘Non violation’ refers to the technical question of whether there can be legal grounds for complaint under the WTO’s intellectual property agreement, even when the agreement has not been violated.

Pinpointing the central problem, Lamy called for ‘political energy’ to take the DDR forward. He was hinting at the apathy or preoccupation of richer countries, particularly the United States and the European Union. Even if his calls are heeded, it may be difficult to conclude DDR by next year, unless leaders of member-countries can successfully explain to their people how the DDR will benefit them. Few people are clear as to how DDR will make their lives better. Many are suspicious of the motives of developed countries. Fear of further liberalisation dominates and this fear is unlikely to dissipate by next year.

For Anand Sharma, the task is cut out. He needs to communicate to the Indian people the benefits of DDR, the state of play in the negotiations and the critical areas where India needs to give in order to gain something elsewhere.

E-mail: tncr@sify.com