The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to gain a clear edge over the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in terms of vote share in the Lok Sabha polls, according to a survey conducted by the Centre for the Advanced Study of India (CASI) at the University of Pennsylvania and Carnegie Endowment in partnership with the Lok Foundation.
The study , an ongoing five-year survey of 75,000 rural and urban households across the country, was conducted between October and December 2013.
The researchers found that the UPA’s vote share was down to 23% from 31.5% in 2009, while the NDA’s climbed to 31% from 21.5%.
The NDA, which appear to be riding on BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s popularity, is likely to be the favourite of the upper castes, according to a report published in The Hindu .
The survey also shows that the NDA has gained in every big state except Karnataka, its biggest gains in vote share coming in Bihar, Rajasthan and Haryana.
The study also said Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress may continue its spectacular electoral performance by getting 41% vote share, while the Left Front will get 25%.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is projected to garner 24% vote share in Uttar Pradesh, followed by Samajwadi Party with 20%.
The BJP may lead in the state with 29% vote share, while Congress will be reduced to just 9% of the votes in the state, .
Economic growth, corruption and inflation were the top three electoral issues for Hindus and Muslims alike.
The elections to the 543-member Lok Sabha will be spread over nine phases beginning April 7. The results would be declared on May 16.