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Bond yields to remain elevated

BS Reporter  |  Mumbai 

The yield on government securities may continue to show hardening trend since the government's decision to increase the quantum of auctions for the week to Rs 15,000 crore from Rs 12,000 crore indicated earlier may hit sentiment.

This is the fourth consecutive week the RBI is selling higher-than-indicated amount of gilts.

IDBI Gilts managing director NS Venkatesh said the market is waiting for full union Budget (scheduled on July 3, 2009) to get clarity on the government borrowing program. Till then, the yields will show tendency to remain elevated.

Any sharp fall in the US government bonds may also keep sentiment jittery as this may further heighten fears that policy rates will soon start rising abroad and back home, said bond dealer with a public sector bank.

The yield on 10-year benchmark 6.05 per cent 2019 paper is seen to move in the 6.55-6.65 per cent band. It had settled at 6.56 per cent on Friday.

With the ample liquidity in the system the overnight lending rate (call) is expected to remain soft.

On Friday (June 6) the money market rates remained soft tracking comfortable liquidity in the system. The call range was noted at 3-3.30 per cent.

Considering the volume in overnight money market and amount parked by banks with Reserve Bank of India under the reverse repo window, the extra liquid resources in system are estimated at over Rs 2,00,000 crore.

Banks are flush with funds reflecting moderation in credit offtake. Banks added deposits worth Rs 1,33,000 crore since beginning of new financial year while the outstanding credit has contracted by Rs 39,000 crore.

Reserve Bank of India has mopped up part of dollar being brought into by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) as form of capital in stock market. RBI releases rupee resources while buying dollars, adding to liquidity in the system, dealers said.

The overnight CBLO rate was seen in the range of 0.50 - 3.24 per cent. The amount absorbed under LAF Reverse Repo operation was noted at Rs 1,31,290 crore.

The flow of foreign portfolio investment is expected to keep value of rupee against the dollar firm. Besides FII flows, any weakness in dollar against Asian currencies and dollar sales from exporters may also provide upward push for rupee dealers said.

The rupee appreciated and closed at Rs 47.10 on Friday. The forward premium rates hardened across the curve. The six-month forward premium was at 2.8 per cent.

Bank of Baroda chief economist Rupa Rege Nitsure said rupee’s short-term outlook is positive due to the growing strength of Indian stocks and oil-induced improvement in the trade balance.

First Published: Mon, June 08 2009. 00:39 IST