Contrary forecasts fox farmers

The conflicting forecast for the monsoons in India by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation, a research body under the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, has caused confusion among the farming community a few days before sowing begins.

According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon advanced into Kerala, on June 5, 2005, a delay of about four days from its normal arrival date. Earlier, the IMD had predicted a one-week delay in the arrival of monsoon over Kerala.

The IMD's rainfall forecast for the 2005 monsoon season between June-September is 98 with a margin error of + or - 5 per cent. The model indicated a 75 percent probability for a near or above normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year for the entire country.

The Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation, on the other hand forecasts a 34 percent deficiency in rainfall in June, a 12 percent deficiency in July, and a 13 percent excess rainfall in August.

According to this estimation, planting operations for most crops during the kharif crops, including coarse grains, groundnut, soyabean, cotton, and sugarcane, would be adversely affected.

B V Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said, "The varying forecasts have caused an utter confusion in the market, and may reduce the sowing of oilseed crops if fears prevail."

He said that if all goes well the rains are expected in Maharashtra in the next few days, and Gujarat can expect rains in the course of the week.

Edible oil imports for the April-June quarter are also seen higher by 100 per cent from last year to 15 lakh tonne, from 7 lakh tonne due to lower prices and multi-national companies transferring the stocks from Brazil to India.

According to the Foreign Agricultural Service, water levels in the country's irrigation reservoirs are only 92 percent of the ten-year average.

Furthermore, the government's grain reserves are also at their lowest level during the past twelve years (17.4 million tonne on April 1, 2005, compared with 20 million tonne a year ago).