The monsoon will be in normal in the country as El Nino conditions will weaken after the month of June, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted here on Monday.
Dr Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said: "In the month of June there will be some effect of El Nino, but in July-August, we will see in the reduction in El Nino conditions and subsequently normal monsoon."
Dr Rajeevan said: "Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The forecast has a model error of 5 per cent."
When asked to clarify what is near normal rainfall, Rajeevan said, "There is not much difference in terminology as anything from 96 to 104 per cent can be called near normal or normal...The forecast is 96. So there is some probability of monsoon being below normal as we also take into account 5 per cent correction."
"Overall, the country is expected to have well-distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing Kharif season," he said.
The IMD said that region wise forecast will be done in the month of June. Rajeevan said, "We will be coming out with the second stage monsoon forecast sometime in last week of May or the first week of June."
The monsoon is critical to India's agriculture as it accounts for more than 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall.
Director General of IMD Dr KJ Ramesh said: "The monsoon will get help from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is likely to be in positive. This will cause normal monsoon and the Kharif crops will get a boost in operation just like in 2017-18."
The IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.
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