What has been learned from 2015, the first full year of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre, and what can be expected in 2016? In terms of the economy, it became clear over the year that large-scale reform was largely off the table. The Economic Survey for 2015-16 made the case for persistent incrementalism as serving the same purpose; but the continuing stasis in the economy, especially of investment and of demand, lead an increasing number of voices question that assessment. A little over half of the chief executive officers surveyed by Business Standard in December were unhappy with the pace of economic reform. However, it is not clear that the government has learnt the lesson.
Over 2015, the obstacles in the government's path became evident. Parliament descended into rancorous stalemate, with the Opposition refusing to allow the government's legislative agenda to be discussed. The constant uproar in the Rajya Sabha meant that the government could not even use its majority in the Lok Sabha to pass laws through joint sessions, as had been optimistically expected in 2014. While the Rajya Sabha numbers might turn slightly less adverse for the government over 2016, the overall dynamics may not alter unless the government reaches out to the Opposition more actively. The process of devolution to the states, which gathered force in 2015, creates an additional hurdle. The Centre will have to rely on persuading state governments on matters as various as the goods and services tax, the implementation of the "smart cities" agenda, easing the constraints on doing business and agricultural marketing reform. Other points of difficulty, such as courts and civil society, will also have to be dealt with. Any government, if it has agenda as ambitious as does this one, has to focus on persuasion of these various other power centres; a majority in the Lok Sabha helps, but is not enough.
In 2015, the divided nature of the ruling party's own approach hindered it considerably. Voices articulating the Sangh Parivar's divisive social agenda frequently drowned out those trumpeting the government's development initiatives. And these voices were not countered quickly or effectively at the highest level. This, more than anything else, empowered opposition to the government's working over the year. Indeed, 60 per cent of CEOs surveyed felt that "fringe elements" had hijacked the government's agenda. However, going in to 2016, there is hope the Bharatiya Janata Party has learned this lesson at least, and is behaving more like a party of the government. The prime minister's visit to Pakistan was just one example of how the party has visibly retreated from some of the maximalist positions it took while in the Opposition. Christmas this year was not overshadowed by "Good Governance Day". It is possible to hope that the government recognises that in a country like India, you have to take many others along with you if you want to get anything done.
