Monsoon worries

The monsoon is displaying its true colours once again. While the eastern part of the country is reeling under devastating floods due to excessive precipitation, the vast interiors are witnessing the dreadful portents of a drought. Only the coastal belts have received satisfactory rainfall. What is really disconcerting is that neither the advance of the monsoon nor its geographical distribution has been very satisfactory so far.

The rainy season, though only a month-and-a-half old, has already experienced at least three prolonged breaks, sending farm operations into disarray and causing concern about reservoir levels that are vital for irrigation and hydel power generation.

In areas that have reported a rainfall deficiency of 46 to 50 per cent, as in the case in Telengana, Rayalaseema and parts of Rajasthan, even drinking water may become scarce if things do not improve early enough.

The silver lining in all this is that the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is still standing by its long-range forecast of a 100 per cent normal monsoon in the country as a whole.

Met officials says that if the monsoon revives shortly, the deficiency can be made up. But there is a catch. What matters to crop output is not only the total volume of rainfall, but also its timeliness and spread. It will not be possible to fully redeem the damage already caused to crops so far.

This fact brings into question the utility of relying on long range monsoon predictions. The real value of predicting the monsoon lies in knowing its likely distribution and not merely the quantum.

Under the circumstances, the least one can hope is that the administration is ready with plans to deal with any contingency, regardless of the weatherman's forecast. One cannot be sure if this is indeed the case this time. Everybody knows what the possible aberrations can be in terms of monsoon behaviour.

Broadly, these are delayed onset, premature withdrawal and prolonged breaks in between. The basic framework of the strategies needed to deal with each of these situations has already been chalked out by farm experts.
These involve alterations in the choice of crops or crop varieties, modifications in the input doses, and arranging for life-saving water supply at crucial stages. But implementing these strategies calls for a proactive administrative apparatus.

One hopes the UPA government, which has painted itself as farmer-friendly, is geared up for the rescue act this year. Over the longer term, considering the frequency of such contingencies, the best approach would be to take up programmes for drought-proofing in as many parts of the country as is technically possible through rainwater harvesting on a watershed basis.

For this, action has to be taken during good rainfall periods and not during droughts. This year's Budget made a pointed reference to this, but has not made adequate provisions for it.

The NDA government had started working on ideas for interlinking the water-surplus river basins with water-deficit ones to tackle the menace of drought and floods. What is needed is a political consensus on giving these long-term solutions the priority they merit.