Reading the tea leaves: What do jobs data tell us about economic recovery?

Expectations of a faster revival of the Indian economy gained ground after the better-than-expected growth estimates of the second quarter. In the first quarter, real GDP contracted by 23.9 per cent. On the eve of the release of the second quarter estimates in late November 2020, the consensus estimate from a Reuters poll was of an 8.8 per cent contraction. But, the economy surprised with a significantly smaller contraction of 7.5 per cent. This has raised hopes of a faster recovery than expected.

In early October, the consensus expectation for the third quarter was of a 3.1 per cent contraction

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