Sunil Jain: It's raining forecasts

PERSPECTIVES

Though the meteorological department has forecast a near normal monsoon based on its new statistical modelling, it's worth keeping in mind just how wrong the department has been in the past. Citigroup has just compiled an estimate of the actual rainfall in past years and compared this with the original forecasts, and it finds the Met's track record has been quite poor. While the average difference between the actuals and the forecast has been around 8 per cent, the variations are equally important. In 2002, for instance, the forecast was off by 20 per cent. Apart from the volume of rain, what also matters is its timeliness and distribution "� so, even a normal monsoon, in terms of volume, can result in a poor crop if the rain is not on time, or is badly distributed.