Muslims account for 11 to 12 per cent of the population in states where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s electoral prospects are positive. In some states, the BJP has stakes in every Lok Sabha constituency; in others it has a fair chance in a few. These seats add up to around 350 and, with present allies, the BJP - especially one led by Narendra Modi - does not expect Muslim voters to endorse its candidates. The Gujarat strongman knows Muslims in these seats did not vote for even the Vajpayee-led BJP in 1996 and 1998 - the years of the party's electoral peaks. His strategy, therefore, is to maximise electoral prospects among non-Muslims, deepening fault lines by frequent provocative statements. Modi is comfortable with this political discourse.
Since the summer of 2012, Modi has granted one-on-one interviews to a handful of journalists. On at least two occasions he said things that did not do his image any good. His comments on malnutrition and the "puppy" remark underscored his limitations of thought and articulation when discussing issues as an equal with the interviewer - unlike with suppliant officers and ministers taking instructions from the boss. Modi may be an extraordinary "doer" but he is no theorist. He claims he gets brilliant ideas - like separating domestic and agricultural feeders to provide electricity to village homes - in a flash. He had told this writer that he thought this was "God's gift" and he did not "know how God got him to do certain things". The claim underpins the viewpoint that Modi's core persona is insecure and this forces him to claim every successful decision as his own, having no imprint of advisers. Associates say he has a "tremendous capacity to convert someone else's knowledge into his power".
The reasons for gaffes like the recent ones can be found in a cloistered upbringing in an overgrown village, a decision to drop out when still a teenager and then resume his education in a non-regular college. Modi's mentors in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) who guided him in this resumption presented it as a certificate-yielding pursuit and not an exercise in knowledge accumulation. Modi wrote his first book - a diary-like account of Gujarat during the Emergency - when he was 27. He confessed that the book was not written "as a writer but as an activist". An insider's account, the narrative primarily eulogised those who went underground. There was little analysis of the politics of the times. In 2008, a new book penned while being chief minister was released. Jyotipunj was an anthology of hagiographic profiles of some RSS leaders. Several of Modi's books have his image on the cover while the subject may be varied. In a four decade-long political career, Modi had at times held charge of the baudhik wing of the RSS and handled its publications division. But the RSS has a tradition of inward-looking political and economic thought. There has traditionally been less exposure to modern theoretical treatises - especially from ideologically antagonistic sections. As a result, Modi's intellectual development has taken place within a limited circle and he is not an outward-looking person. His personal attributes also make him reject a contrarian viewpoint before any evaluation.
Yet, ironically, Modi is extremely talented. His talents are of a practical nature: he is a good organiser, an efficient manager and knows how to delegate responsibility. He also knows how to use his skills and where to reach out for guidance. But Modi's ability with words is limited to demagoguery where it is easy to get away with a from-the-podium style instead of across-the-table conversations or layered negotiations. This is where Modi stumbles, because one cannot talk to either the media or an aggrieved community from the podium - you must have a dialogue.
By his recent utterances, Modi has very easily undone his loyalists' contrivances that he has left 2002 behind and that it would be wrong to evaluate him through that prism. On three occasions, he has said there was no need to apologise. He told this writer that the kind of package given by his government has never been given by any other after communal violence in any state. Modi also said there is no social alienation among Muslims but if, despite this, anyone felt the need for dialogue, his "doors were always open".
Modi has gone back to partially provocative statements on the 2002 discourse because he is unsure if the development card of Gujarat will work at the all-India level. He knows deep inside that his mandate in Gujarat is still rooted in 2002. Just as the Assembly election that year was a referendum on the post-Godhra violence, he knows the subsequent polls were an endorsement of Modi as Hindu Hriday Samrat. Modi's Vikas Purush persona is an add-on, a matter of convenience for those supporters who are squeamish about his extreme Hindutva base.
The writer is author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times (Tranquebar, 2013)
nilanjan.mukhopadhyay@gmail.com
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