Turning the tide

The reported move by China to divert a whopping 200 billion cubic metres of water annually from the Brahmaputra to its dwindling Yellow river, has been formally denied by China but remains a matter of great disquiet for India. The Chinese disclaimer does not carry much conviction because such a proposal has been under its consideration for quite some time, as part of the grandiose south-north water link plan. The Indian unease is not solely on account of the water diversion, though that in itself is tantamount to water robbery from a river which is one of the biggest sources of water for India and Bangladesh. Equally perturbing are the potential hydrological and geological repercussions of the Chinese move to create a water grid. The site of the proposed dam for diverting Brahmaputra waters is said to be the Shoumatan point in the Himalayan region of China, where this mighty river (called Yarlung or Tsangpo in China) takes the spectacular U-turn. This is geologically highly fragile terrain, being the meeting point of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate. Any interference with the geology of this tract through the construction of huge tunnels or other means of water conveyance will entail hazards like land slips and earthquakes.

What can India do about this and what should it do? Persuading China to not go ahead with this project is unlikely to be easy, as the implementation of its inter-river water transfer project is already under way. The Chinese government is reported to have recently sanctioned some 300 billion yuan to transfer water from the Yangtze river in the Quinghai-Tibet plateau to the upper reaches of the Yellow river. The next logical stage will be the western expansion of the project, which involves tapping the Brahmaputra's water. This is naturally of concern to India and should be so for Bangladesh as well.

One of the impediments that prevents India from taking any action on this issue is the absence of a bilateral water-sharing treaty with China. Though India has an agreement with China on sharing information on flood waters in the Sutlej, China is known to pay scant regard to this, as was evident at the formation of the Pareechu lake on this river in 2004. China has recently initialled an accord with Bangladesh on sharing hydrological data and other information on the Brahmaputra river. Logically, then, China should discuss this water diversion proposal with Bangladesh, if not with India as well. But the chances of its doing this are small, considering the reluctance it showed in doing the same with the countries (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam) that will be adversely affected by the diversion of Mekong river waters.

The United Nations convention on the utilisation of international watercourses provides for a dispute settlement mechanism, including reference to the International Court of Justice. But though put in place in 1997, it has not yet come into force for want of ratification by the required number of countries. China, in any case, had voted against it even in 1997. Under the circumstances, diplomacy is perhaps the only course available to India to address this issue, and it should lose no time in initiating this process at the highest level. The forthcoming visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao next month should provide an opportunity to do just that.