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A fully functional party office in Lilong, a small town south of Imphal in Manipur; the party getting traction in Kerala, membership drive going full steam; a trade union leader associated with a leading company aspiring to get a nomination to contest Lok Sabha elections from Haryana; youth in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh joining the party in large numbers and top executives of corporate India jostling to join its ranks - this is a snapshot of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in all its dimensions.
The country has seen something like this before - during the Jayaprakash Narayan-led movement (JP movement) in the 1970s. Why are we witnessing such a situation all over again, almost 40 years after it first played out on the streets of the country?
Experts argue socio-economic conditions as they are today bear resemblance to what they were during the JP movement days. What is common then and now is "the behaviour of the Congress", observes noted social scientist Shiv Vishwanathan. (FACTORS LEADING TO THE RISE OF JP)
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The JP movement was fuelled by a combination of three factors - persistently high inflation, rising inequality and corruption in everyday life. The country recorded its highest ever rate of inflation of 33.3 per cent in September 1974. And from November 1973 to December 1974, inflation never dropped below 20 per cent. In fact, it remained above 30 per cent for four consecutive months starting June 1974. Data also reveal inequality, both in urban and rural areas, shot up from 1973 to 1977. The unemployment rate, especially in urban areas, too climbed during the same period. And, growth remained sluggish from 1972-73 to 1974-75.
Is the same set of factors driving the rise of AAP? Data accessed by Business Standard clearly show the rich-poor gap in urban areas is at the highest level ever and in rural areas, it is at the highest since 1993-94. In fact, in urban parts of Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, West Bengal and Delhi, the gap is higher than the national average. And, people's anger with rising inequality can be gauged by the fact that the ruling coalition suffered heavy electoral reverses in the recently held Assembly elections in Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Delhi.
Social scientist Christophe Jaffrelot has argued in a recent column that rural-urban gap, as measured in terms of monthly per capita expenditure, too has increased since 1993-93. Quoting National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) data, he has argued the income gap between villages in richer states and poorer states too has widened since 1993-94.
Similarly, the country has seen persistently high inflation since 2010-11. The prices of primary articles rose 17.7 per cent in 2010-11 and 9.8 per cent in 2011-12. Even as late as November 2013, inflation as measured by Consumer Price Index was at the uncomfortably high level of 11.2 per cent. Growth has slowed down considerably and so has the pace of job creation. However, the incidence of poverty has reduced considerably and unemployment rate now is nowhere close to what it was in the 70s. But, cases of major scams in recent years seem to have created a fertile ground for an anti-corruption movement.
Like the JP movement, the AAP too was started as an anti-corruption movement, but the cocktail of rising inequality and high inflation has turned it into a much wider one. "There is a new kind of marginality both in urban and rural areas that is driving the rise of AAP," argues Vishwanathan. He adds that just like the JP movement days, people's alienation with the political class is at a very high level.
Political observers, however, point out areas of divergence, too. The JP movement, they say, was essentially a political movement driven by an assortment of parties from right, left and centre. It had strong presence in colleges and university campuses. "The AAP, though popular among youth, is by no means confined to campuses. And, it is not strictly political either. It does not fit into the idiom of conventional politics," argues Manindra Nath Thakur of the Jawaharlal Nehru University.
The AAP is one of the first experiments of government and movement travelling together. AAP chief and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal sitting on a dharna near Parliament is a case in point.
"The JP movement, a result of bullock cart capitalists and assertion of other backward classes, died after the Janata Party formed the government in 1977. But the AAP has kept the agitational fervour alive even after forming the government in Delhi. This is a significant departure from the JP movement," observes Thakur.
The JP movement was socialist in orientation, as it strongly advocated affirmative action and welfare schemes for various sections of society. Is the movement led by the AAP going to be socialist movement Part-II, as it too has come out strongly in favour of entitlement programmes like cheap power and free water?
