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The extent to which Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) boss Lalu Prasad's clout played a role in influencing the Congress leadership to take ordinance route to insulate convicted lawmakers is still unclear. It was alleged that the ‘Narendra Modi phobia’ in Bihar convinced the key Congress leaders to take a highly ‘controversial’ decision in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2014.
On Friday, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi slammed a cabinet move to protect politicians found guilty of crimes, embarrassing the government led by his own party.
It is too early to predict whether Gandhi manages to trump the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), given the Congress's and the saffron party's polarized views on the ordinance. The real answers lie elsewhere, however.
Ahead of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the RJD-Congress parted ways when Prasad had 'humiliated' the Congress by allowing the national party to contest only four Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. After the break-up, the Grand Old Party decided against any truck with Prasad on the ground that it wished to strengthen its organisation at the grassroots-level.
Gandhi gave a call for “go it alone” in successive polls after the fiasco. The Congress vice-president's determination to rebuild the Congress in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, instead of surviving through alliances, is the prime reason the party has maintained a distance from the RJD.
Political pundits say that any any move to “identify” with Prasad, who is involved in as many as six cases of Rs 950-crore fodder scam, might be counter productive at a time when the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government is at the receiving end against the alleged corruption charges.
Also, it was reported that the beleaguered former Bihar Chief Minister pleaded before Congress chief Sonia Gandhi that if he were to be convicted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will have a free play in the state and the Yadav vote bank will move to shift to anti-Congress parties for a long time to come.
The ordinance allows legislators to attend House proceedings after conviction as long as they obtain a stay within 90 days, they cannot vote or draw their salary till they are acquitted. If the appeal is rejected, they lose their seat immediately.
The Representation of the People (Second Amendment) Bill, 2013, was formally introduced in the Rajya Sabha but certain technicalities prevented it being passed. Prasad had lobbied hard with all political parties during the recently-concluded monsoon session of for the passage of the Bill which would negate the Supreme Court ruling disqualifying convicted MPs and MLAs.
In 2009, the RJD-LJP combine managed to win just four seats in Bihar. Internal assessments revealed that in many seats, division of Muslim votes between the RJD and Congress cost them dear. A section of Congress leaders are of the view that RJD-LJP alliance, along with the Congress, will be formidable combination to win a major chunk of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats as the JD(U) and the BJP parted ways.
The Lalu Prasad of the 1990s is vastly different from today's Lalu Prasad. Then he was one of the tallest leaders of the state and a power at the Centre. Today, he has nearly no role to play either in the state or at the Centre. Even if the RJD is not the first choice for the Congress as a poll partner for 2014, it would not dump Prasad, at least for a few more months. The congress is seen ‘supporting’ Prasad as it would help the party to curtail the bargaining power of Nitish Kumar, who recently came out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but wants to pick an ally on his own terms.
With this game plan in mind, it seems, the Congress has risked being seen as siding with tainted lawmakers. At present, the ruling JD (U) is reluctant to commit to the Congress on allocating to it all the 15 Lok Sabha seats that it had left for the saffron party in 2009 as part of an alliance. The choice of the Congress to clear an ordinance is an attempt to save Prasad from vanishing into the political wilderness.
The Congress party is now faced with twin challenges in Bihar: it has to consider an alliance with Prasad — still the biggest Opposition force — if it intends to increase its tally in the next general election scheduled for 2014. At the same time, it has to establish itself as the viable Opposition force against the JD(U). The Congress, in fact, never recovered from the reverses it suffered in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections.
The UPA chairperson is known to have a soft corner for Prasad who was the first leader to declare that her foreign origins should not come in the way of her appointment as India’s Prime Minister. Union Law Minister Kapil Sibal’s proximity to the RJD chief is no secret. In 1998, he was elected to the Rajya Sabha from Bihar with support from Prasad. Is Prasad playing his last innings in politics? Neither wife and former Chief Minister Rabri Devi nor son Tejaswi has displayed the political acumen to fill his shoes; keeping the core flock will be a challenge without Prasad.
