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Seven emerging mkt countries at risk of exchange rate crises: Nomura

Press Trust of India  |  New Delhi 

Seven countries including Sri Lanka, and are at risk of exchange rate crisis as investors re-assess their risks following the in and Turkey, a new index by Nomura says.

According to the global major, emerging markets are under pressure as investors re-assess the risks amid monetary policy normalisation in developed markets, trade protectionism and China's economic slowdown.

The new gauge, Damocles, that assessed the risk of exchange rate crises for 30 emerging market economies noted that seven countries are at risk of exchange rate crises with scores over 100: Sri Lanka, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, and

A score above 100 suggests a country is vulnerable to an exchange rate crisis in the next 12 months, while a reading above 150 signals a crisis could erupt at any time.

As per the index has a score of 175, followed by (143), (140), (136), (111), (104) and (100).

Meanwhile, India's Damocles score stood at 25.

On India, the report said CPI inflation has moderated (to around 4.5 per cent in 2018 from 9.7 per cent in 2012), as has the current account deficit (around 2.5 per cent of GDP versus 5 per cent). Moreover, the central has a sufficient forex reserve buffer, as a result, India's Damocles score has fallen to 25 in July-September quarter of 2018.

"Given runs a current account deficit, it remains vulnerable to bouts of global risk aversion," Nomura said, adding that "and portfolio outflows are its key external vulnerabilities".

The other risk factors for the Indian economy stem from the government turning more populist ahead of the 2019 and a sharper-than-expected domestic growth slowdown, which in turn will trigger equity outflows, it added.

The Indian rupee has depreciated 13 per cent so far in 2018 and has touched a historic low of Rs 72.67 to a dollar.

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, September 10 2018. 13:05 IST
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