THE BJP is losing its stronghold in the Hindi heartland. In the Assemblies of Hindi-speaking States the number of its members has dwindled to less than one-third.
In UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi and Punjab State Assemblies, the BJP now has only 461 out of a total of 1,614 seats. This too does not reflect its true position. For instance, in the UP Assembly the BJP has 177 seats. But in last September Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led in only 112 Assembly segments.
A decade ago there were BJP Governments in UP, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi. Today, the party position in these States is in ruins. Only in Himachal Pradesh does it have a government on the basis of its own majority. In the UP Assembly, out of 425 members, it has only 177, and is only able to head the government with the support of several other parties.
In Punjab, it is the junior partner of the Akali Dal, with only 18 members in the Assembly of 117. In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, it sits in the Opposition - out of 320 members in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly, it has only 114; and out of the 200 legislators in the Rajasthan Assembly, only 30 belong to the BJP. In the 90-member Haryana Assembly it has only six members. Of 324 in the Bihar Assembly, it has just 67.
The BJP strategists are worried over this situation. They plan to launch themselves into the task of re-establishing the party strength in the Hindi heartland. The Central leadership of the party, especially Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, has of late made serious efforts to win the support of Dalits. It is trying to do so with a proposal to re-introduce reservation in job promotions. The Supreme Court had put a stop to this practice and even the Deva Gowda and Gujaral governments, with their plank of ensuring social justice, were unable to undo that court decision.
There is a significant drop in the BJP vote percentage in the Hindi heartland. It appears that the party has lost its old winning equation of a decade ago.
