Cong Best Not Good Enough

With the second phase of polling over yesterday, the Congress Party is realising that there it may well have to deal with the Left parties to form a government even if its best possible post-election scenario comes true.

A state-wise assessment of the partys prospects worked out at the Congress headquarters is limited to a maximum of 210 seats. Party leaders engaged in the excercise, including a general secretary, admit that the best scenario has been worked out depending on a strong Sonia Gandhi undercurrent in the country.

As per the worst scenario, Congress leaders see the party getting 185 seats-about 15 seats more than what other parties predict for the Congress.

 

The difference of 30 seats can change the entire post-poll scenario. If the Congress is unable to cross 200 mark, it will have to depend on the Left parties to cobble a majority. In that case, the choice of the next Prime Minsiter and the economic agenda of the next government could have a strong Left imprint.

If the Congress crosses the 200 mark and is in a position to get a majority with like-minded United Front partners who may not be allergic to the party, it will have to break the 13-party coalition. If this does not happen, then the Congress will have to deal with the Front as a whole rather than striking deals with its constituents.

It is necessary for the Congress to form a majority without depending on the Left parties if it wants to implement its election manifesto, especially the economic agenda.

While the Congress has promised a bold reforms agenda, the Left parties talk about a cautious approach to further opening up of the economy. In fact, the Lefts economic views appear closer to the BJPs than to the Congress.

According to the assessment excercise currently on at the Congress headquarters, the party hopes to form the next government with the support of Laloo Prasad Yadavs Rashtriya Janata Dal, Mulayam Singh Yadavs Samajwadi Party, and G K Moopanars Tamil Maanila Congress.

These parties are closer to the Congress in their approach to economic liberalisation than to the Left parties.

Congress leaders see the RJD winning 16 seats in Bihar, the SP at least 15 seats and the TMC, 15 seats. It is in this context that the Congress move to withdraw its nominee from Srinagar is important as every seat that can lead to a Congress majority without the support of the Left matters to the party.

However, even after adding the seats of its possible allies, the Congress does not reach the magic figure of 273, and remains 17 short of a majority. For the Congress objective to materialise, the United Front will have to disintegrate so that the Congress has the freedom of picking up partners of its choice.

A party general secretary was confident his party would get allies of its choice from the United Front and if, even after this, the Congress is short of a majority, the Left would have no option but to support it.