Congress Leaders Feel Bjp Will Win Gujarat

Congress leaders acknowledge that the BJP is poised to return to power in Gujarat, but look forward to rebuilding their strength in the state once they are in a clear opposition role.

They have been supporting the government of the Rashtriya Janata Party, led by Shankersinh Vaghela, since it split from the BJP more than two years ago.

We have fallen between two stools, says a senior Congress leader from the state. We are neither in government, nor in opposition.

Explaining the Congress last minute decision not to ally with the RJP for simultaneous elections for the states 182 assembly and 26 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress leader said that strengthening a third force in the states politics would have hurt the Congress in the long run.

 

Many psephologists have, in any case, predicted that the BJP would have won a majority in the new assembly whether or not the Congress allied with the RJP. According to these estimates, the alliance would have brought the Congress a few more seats, but not enough to form a government, even in coalition with the RJP.

One of the factors that could go against the Congress is the continuing disunity among the various factions that comprise the state unit.

The Janata Dal led by the late chief minister, Chimanbhai Mehta, had merged with the Congress but the marriage has been far from perfect. Plus, there are factions within the former JD and within the original Congress.

Although the BJPs state unit is also divided, former chief minister Keshubhai Patel is popular, particularly among his influential caste fellows, the Patels. He is known for probity and a no-nonsense administrative style. His ally in the states unit, Narendra Modi, is back in charge of preparing for the elections. He had been removed from charge of the state unit after Vaghelas initial revolt about three years ago.

Congress strategists now calculate that, even if the BJP returns to power in these elections, the RJP would be reduced to a marginal force and the Congress could return to playing the leading role in the opposition.

They predict that the BJP will once again establish its dominance in Kutch and Saurashtra, Patels citadel. However, in addition to Sanat Mehtas lone Congress seat from these regions, they hope to add Bhavnagar.

The Congress has always been strong in south Gujarat and some of its leaders hope to gain some seats here, particularly around Valsad. They hope to give the BJP and the RJP a fight in north Gujarat too. Vaghelas roots are in Mehsana, in this region.