Congress Resurgence In Up Hits Samajwadi Party

The Congress resurgence under Sonia Gandhi has made a great difference to the fortunes of the Samajwadi Party than those of the Bharatiya Janata Party, as borne out by a survey of the three constituencies of Mishrikh, Sitapur and Shahjahanpur. The three go to the polls on February 22.

Muslim voters appear to have deserted the Samajwadi Party in larger numbers in favour of the Congress.

The BJPs Brahmin vote has also been affected, but not to the same extent. The Brahmins have been stopped in their tracks by the intervention of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Says a Brahmin voter in Hurdauli, Sitapur, Vajpayee is desh ki mahan vibhuti hain. Hum sab ko dekh chuke hain. (Vajpayee is great man and we have seen everybody else).

 

The BJP hopes that Sonia Gandhi would make a greater impact than has been visible until now, which would help the party win Sitapur and Mishrikh due to a further division of non-BJP votes.

Sitapur, Mishrikh and Shahjahanpur are different from others in the sense that they do not demonstrate the kind of consolidation of social groups found elsewhere in the state. Caste kinship yes, but not to a large extent; caste and party nexus yes, but again short of being overwhelming. Thus in the reserve constituency of Mishrikh, the BJP has put up a Chamar as its candidate, but he is unlikely to get many votes of his fellow castemen who are still with the Bahujan Samaj Party.

The BSP is also expected to get a bulk of the Passi votes. The Muslims in Mishrikh, as in other constituencies, have deserted the BSP, blaming it for the opportunist alliance it had with the BJP to form a government in Lucknow.

The Samajwadi Party candidate Ram Lal Rahi, minister of state for home in the P V Narasimha Rao government, who stood fourth in the 1996 election, has improved his position to third. A major chunk of the Muslim vote is likely to go his way, but the battle remains between the BJP and the SP. Says Jagdish Narain Shukla, a Brahmin: Nothing will happen only by the coming of Sonia Gandhi.

The voter is not the same as in 1947, when the literacy rate was 6-7 per cent. Now things are different. The Congress has no organisation and without an organisation, how can you garner votes. He represents that section of Brahmins who are keen to see Vajpayee succeed this time.

In Sitapur, the Congress has fielded Ammar Rizvi as its candidate, which has raised the election to a feverish pitch.

He is challenging Samajwadi Party incumbent, Mukhtar Anees, BJPs Janardan Misra and the BSPs Prem Nath Verma, a Kurmi in a constituency which has a large presence of Kurmis. All four are strong and capable of getting 1 lac votes each. In Sitapur, the Congress resurgence has led to Muslims returning to its fold.

This has been facilitated by Rizvis candidature and also by the failure of Anees to do anything worthwhile as the sitting MP. His illness too has limited his campaign.

Both Sonia Gandhi and Mulayam Singh Yadav are slated to address meetings, after which the final polarisation of the Muslim vote is expected to take place.

The BJP had suffered in the 1996 election due to a revolt within the organisation, when a large section of Brahmins voted for the Brahmin candidate of the Congress. But now the party has closed ranks, making Misra the frontrunner.

The enthusiasm of BSP cadres is totally lacking. The party is expected to get the Kurmi vote and also the traditional BSP vote, but little else. The BJP is also likely to corner some Kurmis votes. In Shahajahanpur, the Congress has virtually taken over the Samajwadi Partys Muslim base.

More than 50 per cent Muslims are already said to have gone back to the Congress. This has been facilitated by senior Congress leader Jitendra Prasada, who has ensured that the party ticket is given to elder brother Jayendra Prasad, who enjoys a good reputation, as most benign feudals do.

The Muslims have noted that the Congress has apologised for the Ayodhya demolition, and that the party has denied the ticket to Rao. Close questioning evokes a strong reply: We are not bonded labourers of Mulayam Singh Yadav. However, Shahajahanpur defies existing equations as voters appear more concerned with local leaders than with state or national leaders.

The Brahmins here identify more with the Congress than the BJP, whose base is mainly confined to Vaishya, Kayastha and Thakur. Yadavs are with Satyapal Singh Yadav, formerly with the Janata Dal, later with the Samajwadi Party, but now a BJP candidate.

The Yadavs are clearly not with Samajwadi Party candidate Ram Moorti Verma is a Lodh, called Kissan in local parlance, but the community does not identify with chief minister Kalyan Singh. Verma is popular, and is likely to deliver Lodh votes to the SP. Voters in Shahjahanpur argue that the seat is still open even though there is some pessimism in the BJP ranks.

The vote in the villages would be crucial since all parties appear equally strong in the urban areas. The Congress is considered in the lead, since voters are attached to leaders who redress their grievances. In this respect, Jayendra Prasad scores.